not to wrestle If the situation a lot more than allowed to mourn, and hands, then you should do that at least with a sense of Humor. This British handling of the crisis and demise of Timothy Garton Ash, bestselling author and Oxford Professor, celebrated at the launch of the “Munich Security Report, 2019” in Berlin on Monday. The event is traditionally the kick-off to a security conference in Munich next weekend.
“The great Puzzle – who collects the parts?” is the heading of the report. The analysis and survey results can be read as a warning: Wherever you look, to take the conflicts, the growing threat of war and the waning of the Faith in conflict prevention and crisis management. “We need more international cooperation,” said Garton Ash, “but we have less and less cooperation.”
“A Brexit is driving the disintegration”
Many Europeans, the Germans want to see power in the EU regulation. But hopes that the EU’s “world policy”, as EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, as formulated, have not a very solid Foundation, headed Garton Ash chain word game. The Brexit would be a “world policy capacity loss” for the EU. The more urgent a “world policy’s ability to loss avoidance strategy”. The must begin with the avoidance of the Brexits. It is a misconception that the EU will, after the discharge of the integration-sceptical Brits that are capable of action. In the long term, and strategically, the disintegration of the EU will increase. Countries such as Denmark and Poland were to take the Brexit as a template, as you loosen your attachment to the EU.
Garton Ash continues to a second Referendum. He conceded that there was no majority in the British Parliament. But that high state of art is now “in demand”.
The EU said: it is only a minor Brexit, then a new relationship
Sabine Weyand, Deputy Brexit-negotiator of the EU, believes in a second Referendum. The British Parliament was against it. And there was once a public campaign with a positive Narrative about the EU in the UK. And without such a positive message not to be expected with a clear Pro-EU vote in a new ballot. The UK and the EU both had an interest in a strategic partnership. “However, we need first of all an orderly Brexit.” The London Parliament would have to decide whether it preferred a “Crash-out” or a transitional agreement.
For the EU, the future of the EU was “more important than the Brexit”, described Weyand priorities in Brussels. The Brexit contributes to the self-assurance of the EU. You’ll make progress in the common security and defence policy. In response to questions after the practical examples Weyand called “Pesco”, which questions the structural in-depth cooperation in defence, to be confessed, however, that she was still very in the beginning.
Also, Wolfgang Ischinger, the Chairman of the Munich security conference, had highlighted in his views of Munich, in the Federal press conference in Berlin on Monday the importance of the EU. The EU needs to show that she is “doing well”. And that is despite all the crises, “ready to fight for their self-assertion, and their interests”.
Germany “could contribute significantly more to the strategic strength of action and of power in Europe, by improving its conventional capabilities,” said Ischinger, and refers to the claims of the former defence Minister Volker Rühe (CDU) in the “Tagesspiegel on Sunday”.
The Germans trust Putin to throw more than Trump
The polls in the “Security Report”, however, the question of whether the hopes for Europe, because the Europeans of the EU trust much, or rather, because the trust in the traditional super-powers drops, made in the USA. On the question of which state and head of government you trust to make the right decisions, call the Germans and the French are three times more Chinese Xi Jinping as Trump. Also Vladimir Putin’s to trust you more than Trump, the Germans see the Russians in a more positive light than the Chinese, the French see him between Trump and Xi.
Trump comes in the survey by the Pew research Institute on the ten percent Confidence in Germany and nine percent in France. Putin to 35 per cent in Germany and 20 percent in France. Xi to 30 per cent in Germany and 26 percent in France. Far more German and French Chancellor Merkel and President Macron trust stands out – that the Germans have more confidence in Macron (77 percent) than in Washington (68 percent). And the French, conversely, more confidence in the Chancellor (78 percent) than in their presidents (64 percent).
there are also differences in the willingness of the German and the French international responsibility. 59 percent of Germans want to be “internationally neutral”, the French 42 percent. Significantly more French (42 percent) than Germans (32 per cent) are in favour of a “participation in military interventions, if necessary”. Garton Ash called the German survey results “surprising and disturbing”.
not Yet in the fraud-free Zone
two short summaries remain as a warning. Tobias Bunde, head of policy and analysis of the security conference, announced fixes to the end of the age certainly. What have you hoped for a decade ago, is no longer sure that the United States will remain a European Power, Russia is not an opponent, but even if it is more difficult Partner, and that China will open up.
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The Bavarian state Minister Florian Herrmann is reminiscent of the “Security Report” one year ago: The title “To the abyss and back?” on expressed the hope that the dangers can be limited through international crisis management. He says: “in 2019, we are back in the fraud-free Zone.”
