The FIRST symptoms of the coronavirus, at the end of the incubation, begin in the media about after the 5.1 days after the initial exposure to the virus. In a few cases have occurred over the two days after, in the majority of cases occur after eleven days: the average value is therefore estimated at around 5 days. And’ what they say the researchers of the american University Johns Hopkins, in an article published today in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine.
The scientists, who have studied a series of cases of the chinese in the period of February, they conducted an analysis on the incubation of the Covid-19 and determined that the 97.5% of people who develop symptoms of infection from SARS-CoV-2 will show these symptoms within 11,5 days from exposure. In practice, say the experts, every 10 thousand people quarantined for two weeks only 101 in the media might develop any symptoms after being released from quarantine.
For this, scientists at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health indicate that the period of 14 days of quarantine used, for example, in the u.s. Centers for disease control and prevention of diseases for individuals potentially exposed to coronavirus is a “reasonable period of time to monitor the individuals, and the development of the disease”. In essence, two weeks are those which are necessary (though there may be some cases extra, that goes beyond this time frame) to realize a possible infection.
To say that researchers at Johns Hopkins university, the same institution who for months has spread and made public, the map of the infection in real time, have analyzed 181 cases coming from China area (Hubei), and detected before 24 February. For the most part consist of people who could have an idea of the contagious period, since they had travelled from or to Wuhan, the chinese city is considered the centre of the epidemic. These citizens, according to studies carried out, showed a mean incubation period of 5.1 days.
were recorded the possible exposure period, the onset of the first symptoms, the cough, the fever, and thanks to every case detected was created a model of the distribution of the incubation period. And’ emerged, in fact, that less than 2.5% of the infected people showed symptoms within 2.2 days, and more than 97% over 11.5 days.
For Justin Lessler , professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins, “on the basis of our analysis of the available data, the current recommendation of 14 days for the active monitoring or quarantine is a reasonable period of time, although some cases may go beyond”. The accurate estimation of the period of incubation may, chiosano scientists, to help epidemiologists and experts to better assess the dynamics and the mechanisms of the epidemic and at the same time study on the part of officials in the public health systems and measures for the effective quarantine or isolation, exactly as is happening now in Italy.
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