The result of yesterday’s second Council of States election process is clear: Ruedi Noser (FDP) has defended the 185’276 votes to his seat in the Council of States , the Challenger Marionna Schlatter (Green) with 116’594 votes, no Chance.

How did it come to this result? Peter Moser, a political scientist at the Statistical office of the Canton of Zurich, analysed the voters ‘ behavior. Accordingly, Noser did not owe his entrance in the Council of States, least of all the electorate of the SVP. “They wanted to prevent the green Coup, and knew that this is only possible by Noser their voice,” says Moser.

More SVP – as the FDP-votes

Noser received even more votes from the SVP as from his own party, which can be explained with the voter share to The SVP has almost twice as many voters as the FDP. Although almost a third of the SVP electorate stayed away on Sunday to the polls, because the party had no candidate of its own, more in the race. Those who voted gave their vote to but closed Noser. In the ranks of the FDP candidate is not able to unite in addition, virtually all of the votes, because only a few charges on Sunday in her voice.

Surprisingly, the choice behavior of the GLP-trailer. In the run-up to a lot of had been also puzzled, what to expect, after the party leadership decided for a voting share. According to Moser’s analysis of distance remained a significant part of the GLP-electorate of the ballot box. The other part decided, however, not clear for Noser. “Obviously, the GLP wanted to avoid-voters, that there is in the Council of States, a purely left-wing representation from Zurich, Switzerland. That would have been too much,” says Moser.

The outcome of the election was, therefore, mainly by the vote of the SVP and GLP – voters behavior-dependent. “Schlatter would have made the indent in the Council of States only, if you would have brought all of the GLP – and SP-votes and, even more, the SVP-voters would have stayed home,” says Moser. The Green and participating in the SP-voters gave their votes Schlatter, and the CVP and EVP-voices of the majority of Noser went, on the other hand is no Surprise.

GLP: “Not alone on the climate issue in focus”

Moser has for its calculations, the municipal results of elections to the national Council a month ago with the 2. Ballot of the Council of States elections combined. His statements are based on a model estimate, which requires, among other things, that the voters, the Council of States elections have all also participated in the national Council elections, so since then, no new ones are added.

Moser’s model is not based on a survey and was to enjoy, therefore, “with caution,” says Nicola Forster, Co-President of the GLP. However, Forster concludes from the results of the options in Bern and Zurich, that is purely left for dual representation, a majority in the Council of States is hardly capable. The GLP-electorate is liberal and green, now I have searched but apparently the balancing on both seats, says Forster. “She has supported in addition to the already chosen SP-councillor Daniel Jositsch a liberals head is like Ruedi Noser, and not solely on the climate issue in focus.”

Created: 18.11.2019, 14:41 PM