rubbing the eyes: After the financial crisis, too big to fail “applied for” as the core of the problem, so that a Bank is so large that there is a economy cheaper to rescue them with tax money than to let the institution go bankrupt. Today are still allowed to doubt, whether a big Bank can be resolved without disruption really. But still, Size is once again “in”.
US banks are all made out of
The reason for this is that Europe is behind the US and China in Banking. The USA have decreased their banks after the crisis with taxpayer funds the problem loans and the institutions forced to recapitalise. Contractually regulated home market, based on a large unit of J. P. Morgan & co. are going strong in years, and in terms of profitability, the competition, especially those from Europe, will get ahead of. And in China, the state is everywhere on the pusher and pushes the domestic banks, annoying competition on the home market is not even approved in the first place.
The Problem is real. Therefore, the question is whether the possible merger of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, heralds the always bring written Bank consolidation in Europe. The answer is no. And to blame the policy.
patchwork Europe
rather than in Germany, a kind of industrial policy, would be Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz, well-advised, in Brussels, finally, for a truly unified banking regulation. Sure, the ECB supervises now the largest institutions, the EU decided-wide rules for the processing. But in the case of the implementation of the EU Bank regulation, the member States have too much leeway, so that a regulated market can still be the speech. The United States is a single capital market. The Europeans do not.
The result: In a cross-border merger with no synergies can be found. As long as it is not possible to drive the Bank’s business in Germany, France and Italy with a single IT platform, as long as it is not useful to cross-border mergers. What remains to be tried national adjustments, as they are now in Germany.
Merger, UBS and Credit Suisse?
the run-up to the Mega-Merger in Germany, because now the pulse that CS and UBS should back? Here the answer is: no, absolutely not.
The reason is simple: the UBS and Credit Suisse may have their problems, such as the growth or on the cost side. Both banks make billions in profits and are by and Large healthy. You cannot say that either of the German Bank Commerzbank.
Where Frankfurt’s Skyline, here is a peaceful parade-ground: The Swiss big banks are differently positioned than their German industry competitors.
Two things make the difference: With the international asset management CS and UBS have created a business model in which they are also compared with the American giants in a competitive and a world leader.
business model desperate
The wanted is the main problem of the German Bank’s model is not working, new business. And clings to that which has ripped the Bank almost into the abyss, the investment banking division. But here you can’t be in comparison with the US giants. Commerzbank, in turn, tries to the painful and to invent expensive Integration of Dresdner Bank as a Bank for SMEs.
the Second difference between the German and the domestic big banks: UBS and Credit Suisse have in the home market of a strong base. the Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank play in the German private customer market, just a walk-on role. 70 percent of the market associations, state savings banks and the Raiffeisen and cooperative banks. The German private banks has never managed to be in the so-called retail market is really big. Therefore, the Deutsche Bank took over already, the Postbank, the Integration of the Bank around in the normal way but today.
Chance for Switzerland
A merger of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, both institutions would be paralyzed for years. For UBS and Credit Suisse, that would be even a good news, because both houses could try and top people to poach and in selected business areas, “German Commerzbank” customers to recover. A Game Changer would be for the Swiss Institute.
The big saving hammer falls in Germany in the German branch network. Of the 140’000 Jobs around the 30’000 could be cut, estimate analysts. But it is simply irresponsible of this special case on the threat of Job cuts at Swiss big banks extrapolate. As shown, these can be seen in a completely different location.
big banks necessary?
And the Moment in the Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank officially in talks about a possible merger have taken, sent to the Swiss bankers Association (SBA), a memoir with the title: “does Switzerland Need big banks?”.
The little surprising answer is: Yes. And the arguments were similar to those which the German Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz, to obstetrics, to the Mega-make-Merger: Germany’s need as a leading industrial nation, a strong Bank to accompany the domestic industry internationally, and means it.
Without a local big banks “depends on the access to the international capital markets for larger companies entirely from abroad,” warns the Memorandum of the Swiss bankers Association. She’s not talking, but a mega-merger of UBS and Credit Suisse, the word. The bankers ‘ Lobby, repeatedly your Mantra to slow down the necessary growth of UBS and Credit Suisse by new regulation.
Where Size is at once “hip”, it seems this is not a bad time for a Lobby to be action.
Created: 18.03.2019, 14:37 PM
