the Craving for rechargeable cars continues to grow. In the last step laddhybriderna with 46 per cent, and electric cars, with 68%. But it is still from low levels. Electric cars now account for two per cent of the nybilskakan and laddhybriderna for six per cent.
Power Circle has looked far into the future. A new forecast, which extends until 2045 shows that we are only at the beginning of a elbilsboom that will accelerate by the middle of the 2020s.
dominate the plug-in hybrids, but from around 2024, will the pure electric vehicles to draw from. The year 2030 is considered the electric cars account for almost 90 per cent of new sales. Then have the whole of the rechargeable fleet grown to 2.5 million cars.
the Assessments are based, inter alia, on the manufacturers ‘ plans for future electric cars.
” Our forecast assumes that the electric car becomes as cheap to purchase as an equivalent gasoline or diesel car in the year 2025. After that, there is no reason to not choose an electric vehicle when buying a new car because even the running cost is lower, ” says Daniel Kulin, the expert on Power Circle.
Link to the graphics
– It contributes to about half of the target. The mix is then closer to the two million electric and 600,000 plug-in hybrids. They increase until the 2023-2024, then they fall steep. They have the disadvantages of the dual drive trains, higher service costs and that they are dependent on gasoline. There is no upside at all to choose such a car.
– the Infrastructure must be built out at the pace that is required. Here, policy has a broader responsibility on infrastructure and services. Infrastructure should be seen as an investment, not a cost.
” A million vehicles, fuel tanks for approximately sek 20 billion annually. Two million electric cars therefore corresponds to gasoline for 40 billion that does not need to be purchased. The electricity needed to replace these cars is approximately 6 TWh. This is equivalent to about 10 billion in konsumentkostnad, including the electricity grid. To provide a relationship to the figures it can be mentioned that 40 billion is enough to build an annual production equivalent to 12 TWh of wind power.
– Only half as much as the expansion of wind, about six TWh.
” It’s a complicated question. An old recommendation is a laddpunkt per ten cars, but it is extremely depending on which way we choose in society, including how we choose to equip apartment buildings with charging.
” electric vehicles get longer range. It is estimated that they have half the range against petrol cars, I believe that it is sufficient with 10,000 snabbladdstationer. Today we have about 5,000 service stations.
– But the ratio of one to ten, I think, does not apply in the future because most people will be able to recharge at home. So it looks today, in any case, 90% charging at home or at work.
” Here, put your finger on one of the most important political issues linked to the transition. The answer is not technical but political. We earn to invest in the infrastructure, as it has been before.
” With the electric drive cuts the we dependence on oil. It provides significant socio-economic benefits. We can produce our own energy in the sun, wind, water and nuclear power. It gives the local growth.
” of course fill these fuels an important role in the transition, but in the long term, we see no upside potential at all with internal combustion engines. The vehicle benefits are so obvious, it has higher efficiency, the smoke, not do not create any noise and are much cheaper to maintain.
” I have no car, but two bicycles.
