(Obi.no): As expected, voted the british parliament, no prime minister Theresa Mays Brexit agreement Tuesday night.
the Defeat was still larger than expected, and the largest for a sitting government since 1924.
Three key events – Under normal circumstances, had she said thank you for the immediately chief strategist Christian Lie in the Danske Bank Wealth Management point out three events which now can be crucial.
The british labor party has for the first called for a vote of confidence against the May and the government on Wednesday. Since all of the factions in the government, as well as the DUP-the party from Northern Ireland, have said they will support the government, May probably survive the vote, he says to Obi.en Wednesday morning.
Lie recalls that the conservative party can’t force the May to go by, then she managed through a similar poll during the partikongressen in December.
secondly, will the prime minister discuss with other party members and other politicians the further way of Brexit. Although parliament has said clearly no to the existing avtaleforslaget, there is not any option agreement, which brings the current political situation in completely uncharted waters, ” he continues.
the Night when the dream of neat “Brexit” came in pieces Comment
After the discussions will May turn to the EU for further assessment, although the EUROPEAN union no later than five yesterday reiterated that the agreement is not being renegotiated, ” adds the strategist.
The third milestone will according to the Lie be on Monday 21. January.
Then May present a Plan B for the parliament. The page May have so little time, it is difficult to see what changes can be made, ” he says.
The hottest options
Danske Bank-the strategist believe some outcomes are more probable than others, even if the situation is highly uncertain.
Survive is likely a vote will take place
– the Ability for a deferral of Article 50 has increased, although May still aiming towards a Brexit 29. march. A majority in parliament have said they will not support a no-deal Brexit, which contributes to our estimate of only a 15 percent probability, continuing the Lie.
He believes that the probability of both a new election and an “English” solution is low, respectively. five and ten percent probability.
The two most likely outcomes are that the Mays deal, or an adjusted version, is approved at a later time when the pressure on politicians becomes even larger (40 percent probability). Alternatively, will there be a new referendum (30 percent probability), exit the strategist faced with the Obi.no.
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