The race to the moon between the United States and China is intensifying. The next two years could decide who gets the upper hand. That’s what Nasa boss Bill Nelson says, warning that Beijing could gain a foothold on the moon and try to control the most resource-rich areas — or even keep the US out.
“The fact is: We are in a space race,” said the former senator and astronaut from Florida of the WELT partner publication “Politico”. “And it’s true – we have to be careful that they don’t go to the moon under the guise of scientific research. It is not unlikely that they will then say: ‘Stay away, we are here, this is our territory.'”
As a terrestrial example, the NASA chief cited the South China Sea, where China’s military has established bases on territorially contested islands. “Anyone who has doubts should look at what they have done with the Spratly Islands.” The approximately 100 islands and atolls are claimed by a total of six nations.
Nelson’s belligerent comments follow NASA’s 26-day Artemis-1 mission, which saw an unmanned Orion spacecraft orbit the moon. The mission is considered a success and was the first major step in Nasa’s plan to land astronauts on the lunar surface. There they are to begin building a permanent human presence; as early as 2025 it could be so far.
The background is also the adoption of the NASA annual budget by the US Congress. Although NASA did not receive all the funds requested, Nelson emphasized that no savings were made on “essential things”. These include essential components for the next two moon missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 3.
However, China’s aggressive space program, which includes a recently opened space station, is increasingly coming to the fore. Beijing has set itself the goal of having taikonauts – the Chinese term for astronauts – on the moon by the end of this decade. And in December, the Chinese government presented its vision for more ambitious plans. These include building an infrastructure in space and creating a system for managing space.
The US program relies on a number of new systems and devices that are still under development. In the event of delays or glitches, there is a risk that it will fall behind the Chinese program. In recent years, Beijing has sent a number of landers and rovers to collect rock samples — including becoming the first nation on the far side of the moon — and sent an orbiter, lander and rover to Mars.
US military officials are expressing increasing concern over Beijing’s development of space systems. They sound the alarm about a possible threat to US satellites and generally about the security policy implications of China’s forays into deep space.
“It is quite possible that they will catch up and overtake us,” said Nina Armagno, lieutenant general of the US Space Force, during a visit to Australia in late 2022, as China launched the tenth crew of its Shenzhou space station. “Your progress is amazing – amazingly fast.”
A Pentagon report recently submitted to the US Congress also points to a number of advances in China’s space program. Among other things, it highlights China’s groundbreaking ability not only to land on the far side of the moon, but also to set up a communications relay using a satellite launched between the Earth and the moon the year before. The report also notes that China is improving its ability to manufacture launch systems for human spaceflight.
NASA veterans are also watching the competition with growing concern. Terry Virts, former International Space Station and Space Shuttle commander and retired Air Force colonel, said the competition had both political and security implications.
“On the one hand, it’s a political contest to show whose system works better,” he said. “What they really want is respect as the leading country in the world. They want to be the dominant force on Earth, and going to the moon is a way to show their system works. If they beat us going back to the moon, that shows they’re better than us.”
At the same time, there would be real dangers from a Chinese presence on the moon. “China can potentially wreak havoc on the moon,” Virts said. “If they set up an infrastructure there, they could, for example, cut off communication. Your presence there doesn’t make things any easier. There are tangible concerns that the Chinese could interfere.”
The Chinese communist government, meanwhile, claims such concerns are unfounded. “Some US officials have made irresponsible statements to misrepresent China’s normal and legitimate space aspirations,” Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement. “China firmly rejects such statements.”
Nasa chief Nelson is confident American efforts to return to the moon ahead of China are on track, citing funding for the Artemis program. For the 2023 budget year, Congress approved NASA 24.5 billion dollars (equivalent to around 23 billion euros). That’s about half a billion dollars less than President Joe Biden requested, but still an increase of more than five percent from the previous year.
According to Nelson, the requirements for the lunar program have been met. He expressed confidence that the next moon mission, Artemis 2, can take place “within two years” and “hopefully accelerated”. The mission plan is to send a team into lunar orbit by 2024.
At the same time, the space agency is under great pressure. For cost reasons, she is forced to reuse the entire space technology of the Artemis 1 capsule for Artemis 2. Since Nasa has not developed a fully equipped spacecraft for the Artemis 2 mission, it has to remove all systems from the capsule that has just returned and install it in another capsule. “It costs us time,” said Nelson.
The goal is still to fly Artemis 2 by the end of 2024, he said. But it still needs time “to revise it and recertify it and so on”. The next step is the main goal of Artemis 2: to have astronauts on the moon by the end of 2025. That’s a year later than the Trump administration’s old plan.
“All of this depends on two things,” Nelson said. “Are the space suits ready? And is SpaceX ready? I ask every day: How is the progress of SpaceX? Our managers all say they are hitting all the milestones.” In March 2020, NASA commissioned SpaceX to develop a cargo spacecraft. In the same year, Elon Musk’s company began manned flights to the ISS space station on behalf of NASA.
China’s advance worries Nelson, however, partly because Beijing is targeting some of the same places for its moon landings. The country has achieved enormous success and progress over the past ten years, and the date for its moon landing is getting closer, at least according to Beijing’s announcements.
“And there are only a limited number of locations at the south pole of the moon that we consider suitable for, among other things, water harvesting at this point in time,” Nelson said. Asked if American astronauts will return to the moon before China arrives, Nelson replied, “God willing.”
Still, not everyone is convinced that Washington and Beijing are headed for a lunar race. “I’m skeptical,” said Victoria Samson, Washington director of the Secure World Foundation, which advocates for the peaceful uses of outer space. Like the United States, China has signed the international outer space treaty. It prohibits states from making territorial claims on celestial bodies – including the moon.
In addition, it will be difficult for any nation to maintain a long-term human presence in space: “That seems unrealistic. It’s an extreme challenge.” But in fact, there could be competition between Washington and Beijing for “limited landing sites and resources” on the lunar surface.
“Here we have made the argument that it is necessary to engage in exchanges with China,” Samson said, “due to the possibility of landing near the other nation or providing assistance to the astronauts or taikonauts in an emergency.” to have to ask.”
This article first appeared in Politico.
