The offensive lasted only one day. Twenty-four hours after the launch of a military operation by Azerbaijan against the province of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian separatists laid down their arms. The fight was unequal and lost in advance. “The balance of power was all the more unbalanced as Armenia officially refused any involvement,” observes Kirill Shamiev, specialist in the post-Soviet space at ECFR. “All that remained in the province were the few forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh government, exhausted by nine months of blockade,” continues the expert on this Caucasus province, which has been under tension for three years. Before deciding on its assault, Baku had gradually increased the pressure.
With at most a few thousand soldiers deprived of food, medicine or fuel, the separatists of Nagorno-Karabakh were not able to stand up to the Azerbaijani army. This claims 64,000 men “better trained and better equipped”, underlines the researcher. It has modern equipment of Turkish, Israeli or Russian design. During the “second Nagorno-Karabakh war” in the fall of 2020, Azerbaijani artillery and drones ensured total superiority against the Armenian forces. Since its defeat, Armenia had not been able to repair its losses.
The uneasy peace of 2020 could probably not last. Despite the end of hostilities and because its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh had been recognized, Baku had not abandoned its objective of reconquering the entire territory, “including the ethnically Armenian region”, insists Kirill Shamiev. It highlights the threats of abuses against civilian populations or forced displacement. For Laurence Broers, associate professor at Chatham House, several Armenian villages were “surrounded” by opposing units during their offensive. In the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the risk of “ethnic cleansing has already occurred,” he worries. Fear of bloodshed led the separatists to give in. For the researcher, Baku has not yet given any guarantee of security for local populations.
On Wednesday, thousands of Armenians crowded around Stepanakert airport. Of Christian religion, the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh fear persecution from Azerbaijanis of Muslim faith. Between the two populations, the hatred is old and tenacious. Protector of Armenia, Russia, supposed to carry out a peacekeeping mission, had neither the will nor the means to oppose Baku’s demands. Russian soldiers were even reportedly killed during an exchange of fire in the area of the village of Dzhanyatag. An investigation has been launched. Russian forces also carried out evacuations, undoubtedly in coordination with Azerbaijani forces. “The fewer Armenians remain, the better for Baku,” summarizes Kirill Shamiev. The province now has only 120,000 inhabitants. The Armenian authorities fear a mass exodus.
On Wednesday, the Azerbaijani government, however, assured that it wanted “peaceful reintegration” of the separatist province. The Armenian government, which had abandoned its demands and officially withdrew its military units since August 2021, did not seek to protest. “We have taken note of the decision of the Karabakh authorities to cease hostilities and lay down their arms,” declared Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, affirming “not to have participated” in the drafting of the ceasefire agreement. fire.
The agreement provides, according to the separatists, “the dissolution and complete disarmament of the formations of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army” and “the withdrawal of the remaining units and military personnel of the armed forces of Armenia”. Baku still accuses Yerevan of having forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh separatist leaders also agreed to talks in Evlakh on Thursday on the territory’s “reintegration” into Azerbaijan. But the agreement should be taken with caution: the terms of reintegration are unknown.
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In 2020, Baku had already reconquered two-thirds of the claimed territory. The province was no longer connected to Armenia except by the narrow Lachin corridor. The territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan dates from the collapse of the USSR. Yerevan won in the 1990s. The first Nagorno-Karabakh war caused the deaths of 30,000 people.
Western capitals could only be spectators of this conflict at the intersection of Turkish, Russian and Iranian spheres of influence. The mediations carried out since 2021 by the European Union or the United States have led to nothing. “A ceasefire appears to have been established. We will see if this is indeed the case,” Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna commented cautiously on Wednesday. Azerbaijan’s victory does not mean the end of tensions.
