After a first quarter in which financial values have recorded between 17% of Bankinter and 34% of BBVA, preferences are focused on Santander and CaixaBank, which have risen less than the sector average and still have an upward path in Bag.
“Although we are probably already seeing the end of the increases, the effect of high rates should last on bank accounts,” they comment on Andbank. Experts believe that there is still room to make in the interest margin, since every 50 basis points of rate increases add 5% to this margin and do so with a time lag.
Santander is trading at a discount to book value of 24% based on consensus forecasts for this year. “The entity is heading into 2024 with objectives that they have already announced that they will meet in the first quarter, with solid income, risk control and capital ratios in line with their guidance, which supports the current dividend policy,” explains Nuria Álvarez, Renta 4 analyst, who considers that its worse relative performance compared to BBVA is not justified.
Analysts estimate that it will achieve a net profit of more than 3,000 million euros until March, above the 2,571 million a year before. The entity, which has surpassed Iberdrola by market capitalization in April, has a potential for revaluation on the stock market of close to 11%, up to 5.14 euros. The value is trading close to 4.6 euros and has its historical maximum (adjusted for dividends and other operations) at 5.19 euros, in December 2007. Its dividend yield, however, is lower than that of the rest of the sector. , below 5% by 2024, according to analyst forecasts.
On May 2, the payment of 0.095 gross euros per share will be made as a complementary payment for fiscal year 2023. You must be a shareholder at the closing of April 26 to be entitled to the payment, since the price will discount it on Monday, April 29.
CaixaBank, which rises from 16th place to seventh among those recommended, has a higher dividend yield in its favor: more than 8% with 2024 estimates. Experts also highlight its discount on the tangible book value, from 20% to close of the quarter, for an estimated profitability (Rote) for the year of 11.5%.
“The banks most exposed to the business in Spain are in a good profit context and there is still a long way to go despite what they have already raised,” says Andbank.
The resistance of BBVA is striking, which after leading the sector’s increases in the quarter and trading above its estimated book value for 2024, according to Bloomberg, is still in the portfolio of some firms. Of course, it is no longer the favorite among banks.
In fact, the rally it has experienced has meant that it has exhausted its revaluation potential with respect to the analyst consensus valuation. The entity announced this week that it has completed the share repurchase plan for 781 million euros that it had in place.
The firms participating in the portfolio contest are less clear about the rise that Bankinter, which presents results on April 18, and Sabadell, which has just held a shareholders’ meeting and is among the best values on the Ibex since January, may lead.
