While all eyes are already on Poland, which goes to the polls on October 15, it was in Slovakia that there was a clap of thunder during the night from Saturday to Sunday. At 4 a.m., Robert Fico’s camp erupted in exuberant joy, singing a full-throated popular song on the balcony of the party headquarters in Bratislava. According to almost final results, his party, Smer-SD, obtained 23% of the vote, far ahead of the centrist-liberal Progressive Slovakia party which hoped to snatch victory (18%).

Robert Fico, left for dead politically a few months ago, is therefore on the verge of taking back the reins of Slovakia and its 5.5 million inhabitants, whom he has governed for twelve years already. “Robert Fico managed to seduce more than 23% of voters thanks to a torrent of conspiracies, lies and unbridled anti-democratic populism,” scathes the country’s main daily, SME.

But in addition to his nationalism and his transgressions mixed with conspiracy and anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian declarations, his promises of protection and stability in the face of a hypothetical novice liberal coalition have managed to make us forget the numerous indictments for corruption in his camp in recent years. . His detractors fear that one of his first measures will be to place trusted men in key positions in the police and the judiciary, to guarantee his impunity.

“Democratic Slovakia has lost,” writes the Dennik N newspaper in an editorial. “This is not the end of the world. (…) The real fight for Slovakia begins now. This country does not belong to Fico.” However, Robert Fico still has one last step to climb to confirm his return to power. Succeed in rallying Peter Pellegrini, the third man, kingmaker with 15% of his Hlas (Voice) party, who has the power to swing Parliament in favor of the Smer-SD or the liberals. The first scenario is the most likely, because this 47-year-old man is the disciple of Fico, whom he succeeded as head of government for two years (from 2018 to 2020), before distancing himself and founding his own party social democrat, but without breaking with his mentor.

In total, seven parties rose above the 5% threshold to be represented in the National Council, but not the neofascist Republika party, a potential partner of Smer-SD, although promised a double-digit score by pollsters. It probably collapsed to the benefit of Smer-SD and the Slovak National Party (SNS), the historic nationalist party. To bring together the majority of the 150 seats in the National Council, the Fico-Pellegrini duo will need the support of the Christian Democratic Party (KDH), or that of the SNS. Robert Fico has already governed in the past with this nationalist party, at the cost of tensions with the socialist group in the European Parliament, which continues to tolerate, to this day, the presence of the Smer-SD in its ranks.

For its part, progressive Slovakia has not given up its arms and its president, Michal Simecka, also wants the chance to form a government. “We want to do everything possible to ensure that Robert Fico (Smer) does not form the government,” he said the day after the election. Even offering the post of prime minister to Pellegrini? His only winning ticket would be a four-party coalition with Pellegrini’s Social Democrats, the Christian Democrats and the liberal-conservative Liberty and Solidarity (SaS) of former Economy Minister Richard Sulik. Political stability may not be on the agenda in Slovakia…