A presidential trip fraught with diplomatic issues. After Israel and the West Bank, French President Emmanuel Macron went to Amman (Jordan) on the morning of October 25 to meet with the King of Jordan Abdullah II, before flying to Egypt to meet the President Al-Sissi in Cairo.
19 days after the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel, the French and Jordanian heads of state were to discuss the reactivation of the “political process” with a view to a two-state solution (Israel-Palestine), a long-held line through Paris and Amman. The opportunity for Jordan, a key state in the geopolitical issues of this region, to once again highlight its role in the explosive diplomacy of the Middle East.
The visit of the French president to the Hashemite kingdom can be explained firstly by the history of relations between the two countries. “France traditionally has strong relations with Jordan,” explains Denis Bauchard, diplomat and former ambassador to Jordan, “King Hussein and his son Abdallah II have come to France several times.” Emmanuel Macron therefore has every interest in strengthening his ties with the kingdom. Clearly, adds Jean-Loup Samaan, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), “the French visit to Jordan gives a political edge to the presidential trip. With Egypt, France deals with humanitarian issues and the protection of Gazans. With Jordan, the president is directly discussing solutions to resolve the conflict.”
And this for many reasons. First, Jordan is a state whose survival is important for the security of Israel. “If Jordan were to collapse, and the government in place was taken over by Islamist forces hostile to the West, Israel would have a fundamentally hostile government on its doorstep,” continues Denis Bauchard. A credible scenario, while Jordan is affected by the rise of the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, and a majority of Jordanians, of Palestinian origin, support Hamas. In 1948, the exodus of Palestinians following the creation of the Hebrew state and the Israeli-Arab war pushed hundreds of thousands of people to come and live in Jordan, during the “Nakba”, the “catastrophe” in Arab. Since then, “these individuals of Palestinian origin have Jordanian nationality, and are integrated into the political and economic life of the country,” continues Denis Bauchard, and Jordan has been led by Palestinian ministers.
Public opinion therefore leans fundamentally in sympathy with the Palestinians, including those who are being bombed in Gaza. The day before Macron came to the country, demonstrations broke out in the streets of the country, to condemn this visit and France’s international policy, which Jordanian demonstrators consider pro-Israeli. There is a dichotomy between the Jordanian population which defends the Palestinian cause and Hamas, and the Jordanian government, which tries to avoid any internal destabilization and favors dialogue with the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas. And all the more so since Jordan is dependent on development aid sent each year by the United States: the Hashemite kingdom cannot deviate too far from the line of conduct of the West, which considers Hamas as an organization terrorist. This discrepancy places the King of Jordan on a diplomatic crest line. “Abdallah II is therefore playing his political survival in this conflict,” points out the diplomat, and the presence of Emmanuel Macron could serve to strengthen his legitimacy as leader.
As a result, “Jordan is actively working towards a return to peace,” argues Jean-Loup Samaan. The King of Jordan is calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and the establishment of humanitarian corridors to help Gazans. Here again, Jordan walks a fine line between the defense of the Palestinians and the continuity of relations with the Jewish state, supported by the West. Relations between Amman and Israel are “rather stable in terms of diplomacy and security,” continues the researcher, “but economic exchanges are very limited.” Jordan criticizes Benjamin Netanyahu for having marginalized the Palestinian question. For the country, Netanyahu’s government therefore has a certain responsibility in the current conflict.
Concretely, if it were to degenerate even further, this war would have a “direct impact” on Jordanian internal stability, because “Jordan rejects the idea that it could be the future Palestinian state”, explains Denis Bauchard. This idea had been raised several times in Israel by successive governments, who wanted to see all Palestinians leave for Jordan. The Hashemite kingdom then defends a clear political line: that of a “two-state solution” for Israel and Palestine.
