Anyone who expected after the most recent coalition committee that the conflicts between the governing parties SPD, Greens and FDP would be permanently settled after three tough days of negotiations is thoroughly mistaken. The traffic light partners do not even agree on the interpretation of the compromises reached at the meeting. And the upcoming disputes over next year’s budget promise to transport this disagreement seamlessly into the coming months.
The coalition had agreed to stick to the goal that from 2024 every newly installed heating system should be operated with 65 percent renewable energy. However, in addition to numerous exceptions and transitional periods, it was also determined to avoid social hardship, which can arise through the installation of a heat pump and necessary insulation measures, and to promote exchange.
The only thing that is clear is that the money for this funding should come from the climate and transformation fund. But that is already over-planned, so Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) will have to revise the economic plan for this debt pot. And other details are still disputed.
While Habeck wants to ensure that households with low and middle incomes can also afford the switch, i.e. is striving for income-related support, Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) wants to base the amount of state support on the age of the previous heating system – and not on the income of the person respective household. “The staggering could be based on how old and dirty the heating is that is to be renewed,” Lindner told the “Bild am Sonntag”.
The government’s agreement on accelerating planning for the construction and rehabilitation of motorways is by no means the last word. Because the traffic light compromise stipulates that the federal states must agree to each of the 144 construction projects identified by Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP), the dispute has only been shifted to the regional level.
The Greens are involved in twelve state governments, so they have veto options there – and they want to use them. It is “very likely” that not all of these 144 projects will ultimately be built at an accelerated rate, said party leader Ricarda Lang of the Funke media group.
However, the aftermath of the coalition committee is likely to be overshadowed by disagreements over the federal budget in the coming weeks. Lindner is expecting record state revenues of more than one trillion euros for 2024. Nevertheless, the money is not enough to finance the statutory obligations of the federal government.
The finance minister has long since buried the additional expenditure of around 70 billion euros announced by his departmental colleagues. On the contrary, the government must find the strength to save, according to Lindner, additional spending is out of the question at the moment.
The dimension of this savings task can be seen from the fact that Lindner has not yet presented any key points for the 2024 budget – and is no longer planning to do so. “We will do without that this year,” said the FDP chairman of “Bild am Sonntag”. The fight for money will continue until the cabinet decision in June.
The two biggest conflict issues are basic child security and the Bundeswehr, for which together there is additional expenditure of 22 billion euros alone.
For the Greens and SPD, basic child security is the central socio-political project of the traffic light, Family Minister Lisa Paus (Greens) announced a financial requirement of twelve billion euros. Lindner refuses. A lot has already happened for families with children, such as the increase in child benefit to 250 euros, a total of seven billion euros more per year are already available. According to Lindner, the essentials for basic child security have been done financially. More is “always desirable, but not always possible”.
Pascal Kober, socio-political spokesman for the FDP parliamentary group, points out to WELT that “part of the funds used do not reach the families at all because the welfare state is too complicated and the application procedures are too bureaucratic”.
The call rate for the child supplement is only 35 percent. Kober therefore sees Paus as having a duty to “first implement the digital opportunity portal agreed in the coalition agreement,” “so that the children can get help in the first place.” So Paus is in default. According to Kober, poverty cannot only be defined as a lack of money, the traffic light must rather focus on “the effect of the money invested”.
The deputy leader of the SPD parliamentary group, Dagmar Schmidt, sees things differently. “Anyone who argues like the Minister of Finance simply ignores the reality of many people’s lives,” said Schmidt WELT. “Basic child security must be financed and designed in such a way that nobody becomes poor because of their children and that all children have the same opportunities. The SPD parliamentary group will fight resolutely for this.”
The FDP shouldn’t always just say what’s not possible: “It is currently the case that parents with very high incomes in particular benefit from the tax exemption for child benefit. Here I would like to see a constructive proposal from the finance minister that ensures more justice, especially in the middle of society.”
The Greens position themselves similarly. “Just because the child supplement that already exists today will be much easier to obtain, the expenses will increase significantly,” said parliamentary group leader Maria Klein-Schmeink. The fight against child poverty is “a task for society as a whole, which Mr. Lindner should also feel committed to.”
She called on the Minister of Finance to clarify “all key points and the financial resources” this year so that the payment can begin on January 1, 2025.
And then there is Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), who was “fundamentally confident” in WELT AM SONNTAG that Lindner would meet his demand for additional spending: “We will see whether it will be ten billion euros. We are in negotiations.”
Pistorius is one of the few who look beyond their own political field: “Of course we have to keep social security systems stable and ensure that society stays together,” said the minister. He also doesn’t like the fact “that we have to spend billions after the other on weapons systems.” But no matter how difficult it is, there is no alternative: “It is of little use to us if we cannot defend ourselves in the event of an attack, if we become vulnerable to blackmail or if we have to watch an ally being attacked and we cannot help.”
According to Pistorius, weighing up defensiveness and social issues is not easy, “but we have to strike it together”. For the traffic light, this means that much seems clear: disagreement will continue to rule the coalition in the coming months.
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