If gas prices remain high at over 100 euros per megawatt hour, Germany’s exit from coal-fired power generation by 2030 is unrealistic. This is the result of calculations by the management consultancy McKinsey, which are available to WELT AM SONNTAG.
The further course of the energy transition under the changed conditions of the Ukraine war was analyzed. The federal government is currently sticking to the statement in the traffic light coalition agreement, according to which the phase-out of coal will “ideally” be brought forward from 2038 to 2030.
According to the calculations, Germany will still be dependent on generating electricity from coal in 2030 even if the ambitious target of an 80 percent share of renewable energies in the electricity mix is achieved. According to McKinsey, in 2030 coal-fired power plants would have to supply 63 terawatt hours, almost as much electricity as the gas-fired power plants favored by climate policy, which in turn should then cover almost ten percent of Germany’s needs.
“Germany remains dependent on natural gas – even massive price increases will not completely oust it from the market,” concludes the team led by McKinsey energy expert Thomas Vahlenkamp.
In two scenario calculations, the authors also examined the consequences of not achieving the green electricity target of 80 percent in 2030. In the “Extensive self-sufficiency” scenario, twice as many coal-fired power plants would remain on the grid in 2030, at 34 gigawatts, as envisaged under the currently applicable phase-out path.
In the third scenario, “Electricity from Europe”, the experts see room for the import of 33 terawatt hours of electricity in 2030, primarily from Scandinavia. “Despite the imports, production from coal in this scenario is significantly higher at 88 terawatt hours than previously planned by the federal government, it continues: Production from natural gas is at a comparable level at 69 terawatt hours. “The CO2 balance,” the experts sum up, “is disappointing in all scenarios.”
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