Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin has admitted the defeat of her Social Democrats in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. “Congratulations to the election winner, congratulations to the National Coalition, congratulations to The Finns party. Democracy has spoken,” said the 37-year-old head of government in front of supporters of her party in the evening.
The leader of the national coalition, Petteri Orpo, spoke of a “great victory” for his party. “We will start negotiations for a government in Finland.” Orpo could aim for a coalition with Marin’s Social Democrats or an alliance with the right-wing populist party The Finns.
The three parties had delivered a head-to-head race. After all the votes were counted, the National Coalition got 20.6 percent of the vote, while the right-wing populist party The Finns had 20.1 percent, just ahead of the Social Democrats (19.9 percent). This means that the northernmost member state of the EU is about to change government.
It is important which party is the strongest because traditionally in Finland its leader is the first to be given the task of forming a government. For a parliamentary majority, the winner of the election is likely to have to rely on another of the large parties and at least one of the medium-sized and smaller parties.
Sanna Marin has been Prime Minister of Finland since the end of 2019. Since then she has become one of the most sought-after politicians within the EU. The 37-year-old Social Democrat leads a five-party centre-left coalition.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland abandoned its policy of military neutrality in May 2022 and applied for NATO membership. On Thursday, Turkey became the last NATO country to agree to Finland’s accession.
National security was a central campaign issue, although there is broad agreement among the major parties about joining NATO. Above all, the National Coalition criticized the economic policy of Marin’s government and accused it of irresponsibly high spending. When she took office in 2019, the Finnish debt ratio was still around 64 percent of gross domestic product. The corona pandemic and the consequences of the Ukraine war have increased it to 73 percent.
In the last parliamentary election four years ago, the three parties were separated by less than one percentage point – with the best outcome for the Social Democrats, who had 17.7 percent at the time. The fact that they are now aiming for a better result than they did back then is unusual by Finnish standards and is mainly attributed to Marin’s popularity. Typically, the party at the top of the government in Finland loses support over its tenure while the opposition gains.
What is striking about the numbers: the three largest parties were all well above their share of the vote in 2019. All of the current governing parties, with the exception of the Social Democrats, experienced losses, with the Greens in particular falling significantly. Since the election campaign focused very much on the division between left and right, it was difficult for her party to make her voice heard, Greens leader Maria Ohisalo said early in the evening. “Of course it’s a disappointment.”
