Hunger threatens in Gaza. The two-kilometre-long enclave, bombarded daily by Israel and difficult to access for humanitarian aid trucks, is in the grip of a “catastrophic hunger situation”, the UN warned on Monday March 18. After five months of war between Israel and Hamas, more than 1.1 million Gazans are in food distress, or nearly one in two inhabitants in the enclave. The latter are at probable risk of famine. A figure doubled in less than three months, according to the World Food Program.
For the UN, this is “the highest number ever recorded (…) of people facing a catastrophic food situation”. In the absence of implementation of “urgent” measures, famine will affect the north of the enclave by May 2024, according to specialized UN agencies.
The UN’s warning is based on an IPC report, the Integrated Food Security Classification Framework, which is based on data from the World Food Program (WFP) and the Organization for Food and Agriculture (FAO). The IPC analyzes and classifies the food insecurity severity index according to specific international scientific standards.
According to the IPC, famine is a “state of extreme food deprivation.” It represents the highest level on the scale designed by the food insecurity organization, after phase 1 (minimal), phase 2 (stress), phase 3 (crisis), phase 4 (emergency). Famine is reached when the geographic area in question meets three criteria: at least 20% of households face extreme levels of hunger, 30% of children are too thin for their height, and the mortality rate doubles compared to the average. It then exceeds two deaths per 10,000 inhabitants per day for adults, and four deaths per 10,000 inhabitants per day for children.
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Once these criteria are met, the observation that a “famine” is underway does not fall to the IPC. It “is up to relevant stakeholders at the country level, such as government authorities and UN agencies, to declare a famine,” according to the body. Furthermore, the IPC does not collect data itself, collecting information from its humanitarian partners on the ground. When the threatened geographical area is inaccessible, cell phone surveys and satellite information collection can be carried out to establish a diagnosis of the area.
In the case of Gaza, although mortality is accelerating, the available figures are still limited, due to the lack of accessibility to humanitarian aid in the enclave, “as is often the case in war zones”, points out the WFP . The IPC report, however, calls for urgent measures, estimating that “waiting for confirmation that a famine is in progress (…) before taking radical measures is indefensible”. As of March 15, 677,000 inhabitants are already classified by the IPC in phase 5, i.e. in a situation of “starvation”. 39% of the enclave’s inhabitants are in an “emergency” situation (phase 4), and 26% in a food crisis.
To prevent this imminent risk, the World Food Program calls for an “immediate cessation of hostilities”, “full access to food, water, medicine and protection of civilians”, and the “reestablishment and services of health, water and sanitation, as well as energy to the population of the northern districts. The organization is also calling for the entry of 300 trucks per day into the enclave, particularly in the North, to try to avoid a major food crisis.
The start of the 21st century was marked by two other UN-declared famines, both in Africa. In 2011, political instability undermining Somalia, coupled with periods of intense drought and poor rains, led to a devastating famine in parts of the south of the country. The districts of Balcad and Cadalet, and the communities of internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees in the Afgoye corridor and in Mogadishu are particularly affected. 490,000 people suffer from acute food insecurity, and 260,000 people lose their lives: among them, half are children under five years old. Since then, the country has experienced several phases of significant droughts which have raised fears of the official declaration of a new state of famine.
In 2017, South Sudan is also experiencing a widespread hunger crisis. 80,000 people face starvation conditions in parts of Unity State, gripped by extremely heavy fighting. Tens of thousands of South Sudanese must urgently flee their homes. One million people are in an emergency situation (IPC phase 4). At that time, the country was torn apart by three years of civil war and paralyzed by a real economic slump. Food prices are exploding. According to world humanitarian organizations, the famine ends in June 2017. Almost seven years later, 7.7 million people are still facing serious food insecurity in the country.