this Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump, and North Korea will meet commander-in-chief Kim Jong-un makes in the Vietnam Hanoi to your second summit. Eight months ago, the two had agreed to in Singapore the goal of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Because this was not realized even approach, is the Trump in the criticism. He gives dictator Kim legitimacy and acceptance on a global level, while he complain about the US policy of the hardness effectively undermine, the US-Democrats. Prior to the second summit with Kim Trump, therefore, sought to dampen expectations.

Rüdiger Frank, 50, is East Asia, scientists at the University of Vienna and one of the most renowned North Korea expert. In this Interview, explains how the diplomatic performance Trumps, and what to expect from the Meeting in Hanoi.

SZ: eight months Ago, Trump and Kim in Singapore met for the first Time. The summit something?
Rüdiger Frank: But sure. The spiral of escalation is at a standstill. It was since then, no nuclear or Intercontinental ballistic missile tests on the North Korean side, and no military threats on the American side. The Situation on the Korean Peninsula has eased. This can be seen as a success, especially when one compares the Situation with 2017. Of course, the Meeting has not brought the complete denuclearization, but that was to be expected.

Are to be expected in Hanoi concrete results?
In any case. Trump and Kim are both under pressure in their countries. Kim has to show progress, which relates to the removal of sanctions. Trump, in turn, is accused of Kim manipulate, and to bring except for your beautiful words, and nothing to go home. However, he defends himself. It has certainly been in the run-up to, agreed that it is necessary to come to results that can be presented to the American Public. This can be a negotiating steps in terms of denuclearization, for example, inspections, or a schedule. And then there are symbolic, but important actions, such as the formal Declaration of the end of the war.

The Korean war, suspended since the armistice of 1953, strictly speaking, Koreans from the Americans and the North just stops. A real peace Treaty, it could not be only with the participation of all warring parties, so without China.
politics is a game of symbols. When managers at home need to sell their foreign-policy decisions are not value such signals. Also, we must put an end to the Korean war not under-rate in its real meaning. Because the next step could then be the North Korean demand for the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea. Their raison d’être derives from the continuing war.

Can afford, the United States is close to 30’000 soldiers from South Korea to be deducted, if one takes into account China’s growing influence in the Region?
The US has Japan as a fall-Back Option. There you have a relatively strong troop contingent. Appropriate agitation, therefore, by the way, in Tokyo. And it is also not the first Time that you think about in the United States in addition, the troop presence in South Korea. This does not mean that you give up its presence in the Region. You straightened out, so to speak, the Front. However, I am not sure whether the North Koreans have an interest in ensuring that the Americans disappear completely. On the one hand, consider the forces as a foreign occupation. On the other hand, China is a significant potential threat to the independence of Korea. Kim could very well try to benefit from the conflict of the two great powers. To do this, he might be willing to accept American troops for a while. I’m eager to see how North Korea will decide on this issue.

North Korea threatens a famine, economy needs growth to remain stable. How much Kim is in the Interior under pressure?
His father, forced by a massive economic crisis in the mid-1990s, a development started, which is hard to stop: He has given people the opportunity to come to individual economic activities. Thus, a dynamic developed in the past 20 years, which is difficult to stop. Kim Jong-un has inherited these dynamics and also some boost. Now there is a real middle class in North Korea, which is in good economic health and prosperity grow. Others want to ascend into the middle class. Kim has in his power, promised to improve the living conditions of its population joining the company, expressly. But he pushes now limits, which impose on him the sanctions. For its internal political Status, it is important that the sanctions will disappear.

Can be a Reform of the totalitarian dictatorship, the subject of negotiations, such as a condition for the easing of sanctions?
no. It would be the end of any negotiation, if Trump would demand the democratization of North Korea. No one who is interested in a continuation of the talks, would make an explicit claim.

The ability for the atom bomb was always the guarantee of Survival of North Korea. Negotiations make any sense at all?
We need to detach ourselves from the idea that North Korea is only interested in his own Survival. The Regime wants to survive, of course, but it intends to prosper, influence, develop and Makes. Apparently, the nuclear bomb is in the moment and for the foreseeable future, the only reason why Donald Trump even takes the time to speak with Kim Jong-un. And as long as Kim does not believe that his goals by other means, he will continue to pursue it.

The complete elimination of North Korean nuclear weapons is a fundamental goal, on the can, some of all, as to the removal of all nuclear weapons worldwide. As all nod-friendly, but all Parties know that the reality is a little more complicated. The next steps need to go in the direction of security and non-proliferation. It is no accident is allowed to happen, the Material must not fall into the hands of terrorists, and Arsenal should not continue to grow. Intermediate steps on the way to the removal: To the North would be Korea, I believe, ready. I don’t know anyone who keeps a complete removal within the next five or ten years.

Contributes Trumps strategy to reduce the threat posed by North Korea?
of Course. Trump is quite right when he argues that all of its predecessors little. Since 2006, there was a nuclear or missile test after the other. All of the strategies that have been tried in the United States, were demonstrably not effective. Trump has succeeded after all, with Kim and to conduct a dialogue. You have to admit that there is still little tangible results. But if you look at the talks as a process in the direction of such results, they are quite promising.

Why occurs Trump, argues otherwise for hardness, calculated with respect to North Korea as dialogue?
This is very difficult to answer, I suspect that it is related to trump’s personality and, thus, that the North Koreans have understood this very well. His Comments to the Person of Kim Jong-un were very surprising, he spoke of a very good relationship, and even said: “We fell in love.” It is not inconceivable that there is a personal chemistry that is created through the exchange of letters and the Meeting in Singapore.

If you ask me for objective reasons, the answer is: Maybe, the North Koreans and Americans have agreed that they have the same enemy, namely China. Both are concerned with regard to the growing Power of the Chinese, if for different reasons. A common enemy unites.

Have earned Trump and Kim the Nobel peace prize?
I think so. You have earned it all three, I’d go with South Korea’s leader Moon Jae-in with the Team, because it is thanks to him that the process came to Run. You should still wait until an official end of the Korean war, for example, so you have a real document that justifies the price. But if you look at how busy I in the past 30 years, with the theme and saw that it was in the relationship between the United States and North Korea only after the bottom, then it goes uphill for 2018 for the first time. Yes, I think so: This is a Nobel peace prize in value, especially if this contributes to the fact that the relaxation process continues (editorial Tamedia)

Created: 27.02.2019, 09:54 PM