“The most frightening thing is that part of the world has become accustomed to the war in Ukraine.” This sentence from Volodymyr Zelensky dates from November 1, 2023. At the time, the Ukrainian president deplored to Time the weariness that seemed to have taken hold of Western minds regarding the war being waged against Russia. As the conflict prepares to enter its third year, the observation is still valid and has even been exacerbated. The extraordinary solidarity that formed a consensus within Western countries on the evening of February 24, 2022 has gradually eroded. In addition, important elections will be held in Europe and the United States in 2024, with the prospect of a substantial modification of the Western geopolitical landscape.
Because the state of mind of voters towards the conflict will inevitably be reflected in the results of the elections. And the future of Ukraine will therefore be decided both on the battlefield and at the ballot box. In this context, two opinion surveys took the pulse of Western populations after two years of war. One, led by the Jean Jaurès Foundation and Ifop, focuses on the Franco-French perception of the conflict. The other, published by the European Council on International Relations (ECFR), a pan-European think tank, deciphers the position of the populations of 12 EU countries. The overall finding hardly encourages optimism.
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To reinforce the support of Western public opinion, Ukraine seems to need military results. Shortly after the launch of the “special military operation”, on February 24, 2024, a large part of the French population (82%) showed their support for Kiev, according to a first survey by the Jean Jaurès Foundation published on March 2. same year. Its ability to resist the Russian army undoubtedly played a role. But this “good opinion” then quickly eroded: in February 2023, at the time of the fall of the city of Soledar and the start of the siege of Bakhmut, Ukraine’s popularity rating had already dropped to 64%. It recovered slightly (70%) at the start of the counter-offensive – ultimately aborted – in June 2023.
But after two years of war, it fell to its lowest level, with 58% “good opinions”. The sympathy of French opinion still clearly leans in favor of Ukraine. “But the stagnation of the war seems to generate an effect of weariness and attrition in a part of the French population, which looks with a little less benevolence towards Ukraine”, underlines Jérôme Fourquet, director of the “Opinion” division.
The French population is also very pessimistic about a final victory for Ukraine in this conflict. According to the ECFR, which conducted the survey among the populations of 12 European countries*, only 9% of French people are convinced of this (10% on a European scale). Conversely, 17% of the French population believes that Russia will ultimately win (20% for Europe). The (relative) majority of French people surveyed (33%) believe that the war will end with a compromise between the two countries. An observation shared by all European populations surveyed (37% on average).
But the French predictions do not necessarily follow their wishes. Thus, 35% of the population want Europe to encourage Kiev to retake the territories occupied by Russia before talking about peace, while 30% prefer the EU to push Ukraine to negotiate to end the war . This proportion is reversed at European level: 31% versus 41%. Hungary, Greece, Italy, Romania, Austria, Germany and the Netherlands are more favorable to negotiations.
Will this increasingly strong global desire among Europeans for a negotiated resolution of the conflict be reflected at the summits of the various European states? If Vladimir Putin could be open to a ceasefire, according to the New York Times, there is no question of Ukraine moving towards peace as long as the Russian army is present on its territory. For now, the support of European governments has not been denied, with the exception of Hungary and Slovakia. Ukraine even recently signed security agreements with France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
On the aspect of financial aid and arms deliveries, the positioning of the French population also seems to be gradually detaching itself from that of its government. On February 16, Emmanuel Macron promised his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky “three billion euros in additional military aid in 2024”. An envelope much higher than the 1.7 billion for 2022 and the 2.1 billion for 2023. But French support for sending military aid to Ukraine follows the opposite curve, according to the Jean Jaurès Foundation. If the majority of the population (50%) still approves of the delivery of weapons to kyiv, this proportion is decreasing.
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At the outbreak of war, 65% of French people declared themselves in favor of the delivery of weapons. This proportion had radically decreased (53%) during the capture of Soledar and the start of the siege of Bakhmout, in February 2023, before increasing slightly (57%) at the beginning of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in June 2023. After two years war, only half of the French support the delivery of weapons to kyiv. Which doesn’t mean the other half is opposed to it. In February 2024, the proportion of anti-delivery people has never been so high (34%), but a significant number of French people “do not speak out”.
For Jérôme Fourquet, director of the “Opinion” division
*Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden
