It is unlikely that two votes will be exactly the same result comes out. But part of the present-day results come close to some of the previous templates very. A comparison of the current results with those of hundreds of previous referendums shows. The comparison gives an indication of what has in the present-day decision-making of the citizens of the rash given.
Particularly interesting is the analysis in the case of the Amendments to the weapons law. In the centre of the referendum campaign, the question of whether the people would evaluate the vote as a decision on the subject of weapons, or as a Pro-Europe vote stand. Switzerland risked to be from the Schengen agreement if it had not adapted to the EU-weapons policies.
The vote, which correlated the most with today’s Yes-vote shares at the municipality level, however, was a on the topic of weapons: the popular initiative “For protection against gun violence”. It was a aggravation of dealing with poor weapons. The Initiative failed eight years ago, with 56.3 percent at the ballot box. Nevertheless, it is in a point with the results of today’s successful template for weapons is comparable to the legal.
High correlation with many of the “Europe”-votes
For better understanding: eight years Ago, the Zurich community rejected, for example badgers, the people’s initiative on the topic of weapons, with 43.5 percent; today, they took on the adaptation of the weapon to the right with 63 percent. Also the Italian municipality of Coeuve rejected the Initiative in 2011, 41.1 percent of the votes; and today, she said, with 60.8 percent a year.
In both communities, there was also an increase of almost 20 percentage points. Such a change is observed in the majority of municipalities. This means that the results of The two votes are related.
Otherwise, the vote today on the topic of weapons to correlate mostly with Europe-related decisions. The political scientist Fabio water falling from the Zeppelin University at lake Constance says: “This illustrates very nicely what happens, if there are questions not to foreigners or the wage pressure in Europe. Suddenly, the SVP stands alone.”
For Lukas Holdener, Co-Director of the survey Institute GfS in Bern, shows the result that the issue of weapons very often the conflict of the individualized Switzerland against the value of conservative Switzerland. He says further: “A second reason for the high correlation, the women are: they agree in the rule for tightening of the weapons rights.”
The correlations of the second adopted by vote to tax reform and to the AHV funding (STAF) are less strong. The energy act of 2017 swings open at the top, is for a political scientist, water fall, however, is no coincidence. “As the energy law, the STAF was a compromise in the middle with the SP, so a authorities proposal with the support of the civic center and Parts of the Left,” says the water fall. The reflect now also very strong at the municipal level.
For the analysis, all votes were taken into account, since 1981; 323 popular initiatives, referendums or decisions to Federal laws. Was calculated to match how well the results from municipality to municipality, respectively. This is not to say that the Yes-share of municipalities must be exactly the same, but that the difference in the Yes-is shares from municipality to municipality voting in a similar way.
The method is used by political scientists in the Wake of votes, the relevant policy issues of the vote fight closer. This was, however, done so far only at the cantonal or district level. We have now prepared the corresponding calculation using Computer Codes for all municipalities to compare to then on the push of a button, the voting results with previous templates. (Editorial Tamedia)
Created: 19.05.2019, 20:13 PM
