(Mallorca): in Both 2019 and 2020 are pretty good years, think DNB Markets-economists, but the downturn that follows is powerful.
– From 2021 gets US a aktivitetsfall, which spreads to the rest of the world, ” says senior economist Ole A. Kjennerud to Mallorca today.
For the eurozone means there is negative growth in three of the quarters in 2021, although annual growth still can barely keep themselves positive because of vekstoverhenget from 2020.
– How will we notice the recession?
Through the kredittpåslagene, which will increase markedly. It provides increased funding, small nyutstedelser and generally tight financial conditions, ” says Kjennerud.
– When the premiums in the credit market increases as much, also will the stock market fall much, but if the stock market decline is 20 per cent, 30 per cent or more, it is not good to say.
Although the world’s financial markets is faced with a real bang two years ‘ time, believes that DNB Markets is that stock markets are too pessimistic for the current year. For the Oslo stock Exchange may be the way to testing of last year’s indeksrekord.
Top in the stock market
In the seven resesjonene since 1969, the stock market topped out before or simultaneously with the peak in the economic cycle.
“Implicitly, we can interpret the stock market decline in 2018 as the market is now pricing in a certain likelihood of recession in the course of 2019”, is called it in DNB Markets’ new forecasts.
DNB Markets believes there are good arguments to warn against the to be held more in shares, but will not recommend underweight. One reason is that the stock market repeatedly has given false resesjonssignaler. Other indicators, such as the slope of the yield curve and dagpengesøkere and building permits in the united STATES indicates less probability of a recession than the stock market.
2008
Kjennerud emphasises that DNB Markets do not look for a similar setback as during the financial crisis.
Imbalances in both the united STATES and Europe is significantly smaller than prior to 2008, household debt is low, the gearing is less and the banks are well capitalized.
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