Christine Lagarde, the Head of the International monetary Fund (IMF), took advantage of their appearance at the world economic forum (WEF) in the snowy Davos yesterday for a comparison with the sport of skiing. In her introductory words to the there presented between the report of the world economic Outlook, comparing the world economy with cross-country skier. Last year it was relatively fast, but now it’ll be more strenuous, and the visibility is deteriorating. But still she was on a good track.
The “good track” is a symbol of the newly projected Numbers. According to these, the world economy will grow in the current year to 3.5 percent, instead of 3.7 percent as of 2018. Thus, the IMF has reduced the forecast to just 0.2 percent. However, on the one hand, Verde, these Figures mask significant differences in the prospects for individual countries and regions, and on the other hand, you can hide according to the IMF, significant risks for further development.
On both Gita Gopinath, the new chief economist of the monetary Fund, went to yesterday’s event in Davos, in more detail. At the WEF, she had in this role, her first major public appearance.
Weaker Europe
As one of the biggest risks – particularly for growth in Europe – called Gopinath a disordered Brexit. It should come to a rupture between great Britain and the EU, is likely to be the gross domestic product on the island in the long term around 6 to 8 percent lower, she said. The uncertainty in connection with the Brexit pressed according to the IMF chief economist, previously due to lower investments on economic growth in the UK.
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A further slowdown in growth, the IMF expects the Euro-zone. In the year 2017, the GDP grew by 2.4 percent in the past year, it is expected to be 1.8 percent, and for 2019, the Fund is expected to be 1.6 percent. The forecast is thus 0.3 per cent lower than those made by the IMF in October. Crucial for this development, especially the development in Germany, Italy and France, is in accordance with the Fund’s chief economist Gopinath. In Switzerland, the IMF is not in its interim evaluation. The development in Europe, but for the local growth is of primary importance.
A tightening of the trade dispute between China and the United States called both Christine Lagarde, as well as Gita Gopinath also as a growth risk for the world economy. The previously introduced and announced duties are included in the forecast from yesterday. The trade dispute, a disorderly Brexit, the high level of debt, the ongoing scepticism towards the Eurozone and a possible slowdown in economic Growth in China, the IMF-responsible for call also as a potential trigger of further turbulence on the capital markets. A significant downward correction of the debt and equity rates would dim the Outlook for Growth.
more Pessimistic heads
Clouded Outlook is also reflected in a further on Monday in Davos in this study: the “Global CEO Survey” of the consulting company PWC. They are based on the survey of the world in 1378 group leaders. In the previous year to a record deal of high optimism, it is now a record-high pessimism. Although 42 percent of the CEOs anticipate still an improvement in the Outlook for growth. In the previous year, it was 57 percent, still a significant majority. 29 per cent expect a deterioration, in the previous year, it was only 5 percent. In Switzerland, the pessimism is even greater. 47 percent of respondents Swiss CEOs expect in 2019, with a decline in growth.
(editing Tamedia)
Created: 21.01.2019, 22:35 Uhr
