the Newspaper published this weekend statistics as the progress party’s party have ordered from Statistics norway (SSB). The article has already sparked a huge debate, and will certainly go in as part of when the black messiah to come in general – and kommunevalgkampen in Oslo in particular. Therefore, it is important to sort a bit in what the statistics show.
First of all , it is important to know is that this is a fødselsstatistikk, not a innvandringsstatistikk. The figures are based on statistics norway’s overview of the number of births per year, divided into the mother’s background. Why this is important, we come back to. The other important thing to be aware of is that the statistics that were published in the Newspaper deals with two slightly different things: demographics, i.e. the befolkningssammensetning, and geographic distribution of the population, i.e. segregation.
Because there soon is the municipal elections, the progress party even wanted to highlight Oslo when they’ve presented the figures. They show that the number of newborns in the capital, with parents with immigrant backgrounds, has increased from 24 per cent in 2000 to 42 percent in 2017.
On the basis of this ask Christian Tybring Pike on the permanent halt in the resettlement of refugees in Oslo. A temporary halt in the 10 years in the retrieval of spouses from non-western countries, as a general rule. And that there will be higher requirements for forsørgerevne by all of the family immigration to Oslo.
Is there any justifiable reason to introduce such measures? Or are the numbers presented to fit the conservative party’s political agenda?
increase from 24 to 42 per cent hides a lot of interesting information. We can split it up in four points:
• the Figures also include migrant workers. In this period, the eastern enlargement of the EU affected the numbers greatly. On a national basis was the poles and lithuanians the immigrants who got the most and third most children in 2016, with the somalis in second place. We look at all ten on the top list of the same year, is the distribution of the newborns in western and non-western immigrants is roughly equal roughly equal.
• the Figures also include 3. generation immigrants, or “descendants”, as they are called in fiction. In this context, it becomes as if the sin inherited in the third generation. It is unreasonable, and research is pointless. In innvandringsstatistikken counted, they do not. They are young, they are few and therefore, there is hardly research on the group. Thus, they can’t, in any meaningful way, be considered in the total for “immigrants” when we talk about participation in education, employment or when we are discussing about children with immigrant backgrounds speak good enough English when they start school. We know too little about them! What we do know is that the 2. generation immigrants score better than their parents when it comes to education and arbeidsdeltakelse, and that they also come closer to the rest of the population when it comes to verdiassimilering – in other words, attitudes to homosexuality etc. There is reason to believe that the generation after “the descendants” – will make it even better.
• When we read about the strong increase in the share of children born to parents with an immigrant background, one can get the impression that the demographic change in the Uk is faster than it in reality does. Then it is important to be aware of this: Norwegian-born children with immigrant parents get to actually have fewer children than the average. 1,54 children per woman, against of 1.56 children in the rest of the population. Women who have immigrated to Norway, 1,93 children. In statistics norway’s befolkningsframskriving, in their so-called hovedalternativ, count the immigrants and Norwegian-born with immigrant backgrounds will constitute a share of 33 per cent in 2060. Then they have added a higher fertility rate for immigrant – 2,1, i.e. something more than the current 1,93.
• In Oslo are immigrants hardly more children than they did a few years ago. The newspaper has obtained more detailed figures from STATISTICS norway for the years 2011 to 2017. They show that while immigrants born 3603 children in 2011, gave birth to the 3614 in 2017. An increase of 11 children. We take the kids to the Norwegian-born, i.e. “descendants”, which not really be considered in innvandrerstatistikken, was born 124 more of them in 2017 than in 2011. In real numbers increases not the number of children born of parents with an immigrant background particularly in Oslo in this period. But because the “rest of the population”, i.e. those without an immigrant background, have fewer children, in the same period, increasing the proportion and Tybring-gjedde can turn the alarm and demand a stop.
this in place, we can begin to discuss what really is disturbing by the numbers – that segregeringen in the various districts in the capital seems to increase. It hangs together with the housing policy and economic policy, and requires targeted measures from the municipality and the state when it comes to education, upbringing and the labour market. The shared city is a reality, and the tendency reinforces itself. The challenges it brings with it, we solve the best by a proper debate.
Switch the alarm about the new Oslo-numbers:- A total of segregated city
