Even without sending in U.S. soldiers, this could have a greater impact on a wider cross-section of Americans than either Afghanistan or Iraq.
More than 6,900 U.S. soldiers and contractors died fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq, while American spending reached $2.3 trillion. These wars did not have an impact on the daily lives of most Americans. This period lasted 20 years and saw Americans experience the Great Recession as well as the longest U.S. Economic expansion. These were touchstones that were not greatly influenced by the two violent conflicts.
Five months after the conclusion of the longest U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, Americans now find themselves in difficult terrain due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Biden promised that there would be no American troops on the ground in Afghanistan, but he admitted that the Russian war waged under Vladimir Putin could have a real impact on Americans’ pocketbooks.
Biden stated that a Russian dictator invading another country has global consequences in his State of the Union address on Tuesday night.
Already, the financial impact of the largest military campaign in Europe since World War II can be felt.
The U.S. witnessed a surge in crude oil prices to $113 per barrel over the past week. U.S. crude oil prices jumped about 13% to $113 per barrel. Natural gas prices reached record levels in Europe this week as war fears fuelled market concerns about a supply shock.
After a long phone conversation with Putin on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the worst was yet to come for key stock market indices.
However, Washington and other capitals across Europe show signs of growing resolve to face Putin and a willingness to suffer economic pain.
This is a very different tone from the one that was used in the aftermath the 9/11 attacks which prompted the Afghanistan War. As his administration sought to restore faith and confidence in the U.S. air industry, George W. Bush, then-President, urged Americans to “stand against terrorist by going back to work” during that time. The burden of the war would be borne by the U.S. military personnel, who were among the 52,000 killed in action, as well as their families, over the next 20-years.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) pushed for sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector. This is the heart of Putin’s economy and has been pushing ahead of the White House. Because of concerns that such a move could also threaten the economies of Western allies and the U.S., the administration has been reluctant to target Russian oil.
Pelosi called for an end to Russian oil imports by saying “Ban it!”
Sens. Sens. This legislation would stop Russian oil imports into the U.S. by declaring an emergency. Biden could also declare one on his own.
“If there were a poll and the results came back, Joe, would you vote for 10 cents per gallon more for Ukraine’s people? Manchin stated, “I would gladly,”
It could be a significant factor in determining if Biden’s popularity recovers after falling to low levels.
Senator Mitt Romney (Republican from Utah) stated that sanctions against Russia could increase interest rates, slow down the economy, and drive up gas prices and inflation. He suggested that Americans are willing to make sacrifices.
Romney stated, “This comes at a cost.” “This isn’t even close to the blood cost if (Putin] runs amok, but it does not come without sacrifice.”
According to public polling, Americans are becoming more convinced that the U.S. should do more to assist Ukraine. In the days following Russia’s invasion, 45 percent of Americans believed that the U.S. did not do enough to help Ukraine. A Quinnipiac poll found that 37% of Americans believed the U.S. was doing enough to help Ukraine. Only 7% thought the effort was too little.
American politicians are more optimistic about the future as Ukrainians demonstrate, in Biden’s words, “pure bravery” in their intense fighting against Russian troops. As the Russian military ravaged Ukraine’s largest cities, there has been a significant shift in European attitudes.
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz quickly put NordStream 2, the recently completed Russian-to-Germany gas pipe that cost $11 billion, on indefinite stand after Russia invaded. This was a reverse of Germany’s position.
The German government announced that it would send anti-tank weapons and stinger weaponry to Ukraine, a change from its policy of not sending weapons to conflict zones. The German government, one of many European countries that has been slow to meet the NATO pledge to spend 2% GDP on defense by 2024, announced it would triple its defense budget for 2022.
Robert Habeck, the German Economy Minister, even called for Russia to confront Putin in a different way.
He said, “If you don’t want to hurt Putin a little, then save energy.”
Even Hungary, whose proRussian leader President Viktor Orban was reluctant to speak out against Russia during the war, has condemned Russian military actions, supported sanctions and offered temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees who have entered Hungary.
Officials at the White House claim that the European allies’ resolve has been strained after some Europeans had shown some fear about facing the Russians. Over two months prior to the war, U.S. national security officers released steady streams of intelligence that indicated that Putin was planning a full-scale invasion.
However, even so, during talks with Biden’s national security team some European allies seemed to be convinced — right up until Putin acted — that Putin would do less than an invasion.
Talk of reacting with half measures soon evaporated — even among the most reluctant European allies – once it became apparent that Putin was looking beyond the disputed territories of eastern Ukraine.
As the cost of war increases in Western economies, Biden’s and that of allied leaders will be further tested. When asked about the administration’s faith in unity, a White House press secretary said that the cost of war is increasing. She then pointed to Putin.
Psaki stated that “We are taking steps in order to stand up and defend democracy, stand for democracy versus autocracy, and stand up against the actions of a cruel dictator.” We are here because of his actions.”
Edward Frantz, an historian from the University of Indianapolis said that Biden seemed to be heading toward a “sweet spot” in foreign policy after the chaotic end of the U.S. war on Afghanistan. In the last days of the war, 13 U.S. military personnel were killed by a suicide bomber as they helped with evacuation at Kabul’s airport.
Although the withdrawal was difficult and heartbreaking, Biden fulfilled a campaign promise to end the war. This was something that his predecessors had failed to do. He was able to turn Washington’s attention more fully to the central foreign policy challenge facing America, which is confronting China’s rise as an economic and military enemy.
Frantz stated, “Now, instead of the Cold War,” “If this is a lengthy project, and it certainly appears it will be, the president now has to convince Americans why it matters to have some impact on our economy for Ukraine. This isn’t going to be an easy task.
