Avdiivka, which had 30,000 inhabitants before the war, is not yet the ruined field of Bakhmut, 70 kilometers to the north. But this town in Donbass, 13 kilometers from Donetsk, is coming under increasingly intense artillery fire from the Russian army. The latter, helped by the “separatist” auxiliaries, advances in the surrounding villages, Pervomaiske and Sieverne in the south especially. The Russians are seeking the complete encirclement of this salient – a military term which designates an advance in the opposing system – which is always connected to the rear. But this assault, whose start is estimated on October 8, is proving difficult. 900 soldiers and 150 armored vehicles were put out of action, according to the Ukrainian general staff, which announced this Friday that it had repelled a final assault by the Russian army.
“Our soldiers firmly hold the lines of defense,” he continued. The city’s mayor, Vitaly Barabach, nevertheless recognized, on October 14, a “very tense” situation because the Russians are trying to “encircle the city” with “more and more troops.” The Institute Study of War, in its bulletin of October 15, noted that the Russian army had “not yet made further progress in a context of a probable slowdown in the pace of Russian operations in the region.” Additionally, “Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations at this reduced pace in the short term and will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the region, although they are unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encirclement.”
Avdiïvka briefly fell in July 2014 into the hands of pro-Russian separatists supported and armed by Moscow, before returning to Ukrainian control. Since then, it has marked the front line in this area and was already regularly bombarded even before the Russian offensive in Ukraine in February 2022. To conquer Avdiivka, Russia and its separatist auxiliaries carried out several attempts from February 20, four days before the launching of the “special military operation” by Vladimir Putin. But the Russian army has pulled out all the stops since last July, bringing in troops who had been assigned to the conquest of Lyssychansk, further north in the Donbass. A decision that was not understood at the time. The road to Kramatorsk (Ukrainian capital of the Donetsk oblast since 2014, editor’s note) and Sloviansk was open to them, but they preferred to concentrate on the liberation of Donetsk, and therefore the capture of Avdiivka.
Since then, Avdiivka has been thoroughly fortified by the Ukrainians and remains an important point in kyiv’s defense system on the front line. “It is one of the most fortified points on the front. A very hard nut to crack,” certifies Cédric Mas, military historian. Its geographical proximity to Donetsk, capital of the annexed oblast of the same name, makes it particularly strategic for the Russians. “Since the start of the war, the Russian army has tried to push back Ukrainian positions from the outskirts of Donetsk. They succeeded everywhere, except in Avdiivka, because of the important fortifications,” adds General (2S) Olivier Kempf. To break this barrier, the Kremlin forces are starting a pincer movement that they want to close. With the hope that the Ukrainians, seeing the pincers tightening, would evacuate the city.
For the Kremlin, the capture of Adviivka would also be a political symbol. It would ensure security in Donetsk, which is regularly bombed. “For Russian propaganda, the city is martyred by the Ukrainians. By protecting it, it would accredit its narrative of protection” of the Ukrainians, who became Russians after the annexation, underlines Cédric Mas. The capture of the city would also demonstrate to the population that not only is the Ukrainian counter-offensive a failure, as government communication repeats, but that the Russian army is capable of regaining the initiative in certain areas, despite the sludge season is approaching. “A Russian success would be used as demonstration of the Ukrainian failure to break through the defenses of the Surovikin Line, which runs the length of the front, but also that the losses inflicted by this counter-offensive did not destabilize the army Russian,” analyzes Cédric Mas.
The mud season, raspoutitsa, which should arrive in a few weeks, will complicate armored operations. They may resume with winter and freezing of the soil. But for Ukraine a question will arise: in this interlude, will the Russian army do as in Bakhmut and send endless assaults of infantrymen without regard for losses? Or is it simply an attempted breakthrough on a front that has been almost static since November 2022?
