“If there are no changes, vetaremos the Brexit”. The tweet of Pedro Sanchez this Thursday will go down in history of the European Union as the first threat official veto launched against the agreement through that social network. 38 characters that have triggered alarms in all the european capitals before the danger of going into the fret 20 months of negotiation between Brussels and London, and a treaty of 585 pages about the exit of the Uk from the EU.
MORE INFORMATION Sanchez emphasized that he will veto the Brexit if there are no changes on Gibraltar The british Parliament received with coldness the covenant closed in London and Brussels, Brussels and London agree on the terms of your relationship after the Brexit not to mention Gibraltar
Spain requires assurances that the Treaty does not compromise the treatment of Gibraltar after the Brexit. And while looking at forced marches a solution that will satisfy the Spanish authorities, british, and gibraltareñas, the question arises whether Sanchez has weapons policy, and law to meet their ultimatum.
what Can derail Sanchez the covenant of the Brexit?
The Spanish Government is convinced that, yes, because the texts agreed upon by the negotiating teams in Brussels and London should be undertaken at a European Council by the 27 Governments of the EU. The draft conclusions of the summit, scheduled for this Sunday, “confirms” the Agreement of Exit and “invites” the Commission to the european Parliament and the Council to take the necessary steps to enter into force on march 30, 2019. These conclusions should be adopted by consensus, which equates unanimity. It is a political step, but it is virtually impossible to circumvent without triggering an institutional crisis even more severe. In fact, if unanimity is not feasible, it is highly likely that you will cancel the summit.
What would happen if, despite all, manages to later implement the official process of ratification?
In that case, Spain would lose the right of veto, because the text of the Agreement of Exit is approved by a qualified majority of 72% of the States (i.e., 20 out of 27) representing at least 65% of the population of the EU, with the consent of the European Parliament by a simple majority (including the vote of the still meps, british).
do you Have any other possibility Spain block?
Yes. The departure Agreement must be accompanied by a political Declaration about the future relationship of the EU with the United Kingdom. And that text, which is essential for the Government of Theresa May, requires the unanimous support of the 27. The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, as recognized in the charter of remission of the Declaration. Juncker says that the text has been agreed at the level of negotiators and agreed, in principle, on the political level, subject to the endorsement of the leaders of [the European Council]”. Without the support of Sanchez, that endorsement is not possible. And without any Declaration, May not accept the Agreement of Output. All the covenant would collapse.
How has the EU taken the threat of Sanchez?
Among the surprise, stupor, Tempobet and restlessness. The risk of a veto has disrupted the plans for the european summit on Sunday to the point that the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has warned he would not move to Brussels if it is not guaranteed the agreement. Many delegations, in addition, you have been surprised by the reaction of Spain on a matter that was settled between Madrid and London. And the European Commission, who has led the negotiation, does not hide his displeasure at a demand of last minute in Spain you don’t see any justification.
What is the solution posed by Brussels?
european negotiators claim that the Treaty (and, in particular, article 184 that is of concern to Spain) does not prejudge the future relationship of the EU with Gibraltar or puts in question the right of veto that Spain claims about that relationship. The EU has shown that it is willing to put in writing that accuracy in an annex to the conclusions of the summit on Sunday. In any case, Brussels reminds the Government of Sanchez that the agreement of political and commercial cooperation that is expected to sign with London after the Brexit will be subject to unanimity and, therefore, Spain could always block it.
What is the answer Spain?
do Not trust. The legal services of the State have detected a risk of losing the last word on Gibraltar and recommend removing it. The declaration appended to the conclusions of the summit do not seem to be sufficient, in the opinion of the Government, which preferred its inclusion in the Agreement or in the Policy Statement. And on the future agreement with London, the Government sees it too far and uncertain as to leave the small fry to a decision as sensitive politically as is Gibraltar.
how can You avoid the veto of Spain?
All the community sources insist that yes. And see feasible to search for some compromise solution that will reassure the Spanish Government without soliviantar to the british. But 48 hours of the summit have not been with the formula.
What will happen if this is not accomplished the solution?
Could cancel the summit and to postpone the call until it clears the obstacle of Gibraltar.
what if it is given with the formula in the next few hours?
The european summit avalaría the text of the Agreement of exit and the Political Declaration. The british prime minister would give his consent to both texts. And it would set in motion the process of ratification in London and in Brussels.
