The Bank of Mexico announced Wednesday expect a recession more or less profound for 2020 and published three possible scenarios, based on different assumptions regarding the depth and duration of the consequences” of the pandemic COVID-19.
So that it included up here a growth in the range of 0.5% to 1.5%, the central bank now expects a decline more or less pronounced of GDP, at 4.6% followed by a rapid recovery, or -8,3 % or -8,8 %, followed by a slower recovery.
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“We have no elements to give a higher probability to the one or the other”, said Wednesday the governor of Banxico, Alejandro Diaz de Leon, during the presentation of its quarterly inflation report, highlighting the “complexity” of the situation.
updating forecasts, Banxico is close to expectations of analysts regarding the performance of the mexican economy, the second in Latin America after Brazil.
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experts expect a decrease of 7.1% of GDP this year, according to the average of a survey conducted by Bank of Mexico.
Banxico has also updated its forecasts for employment, estimating that between 800,000 and 1.4 million jobs will be lost this year, against 440.000 to to 540,000 jobs, according to its previous estimation.
As to inflation, Banxico, is expected to remain within the limits of its goal of 3% per year, with more or less than one percentage point ‘ for the greater part of the forecast horizon,” which goes until the first quarter of 2022.
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