Inflation continues to slow. This Thursday, INSEE published its first estimate of the evolution of consumer prices over one year, during the month which has just passed. The observation is clear: over one month, prices fell by 0.2% in November. Enough to pull down the index allowing the variation of labels to be observed over one year: in November, prices increased by 3.4% over this period, compared to 4% in October and a peak of 6.3%. last February.
This decline is “due to the slowdown over one year in the prices of services, energy and, to a lesser extent, manufactured products and food”, analyze the statisticians. In detail, the prices of services and energy are slowing down, those of manufactured products have remained stable and those of food have increased slightly, “due to fresh products”. The consumer price index for food products thus reached 7.6% over one year in November, that of energy 3.1% and that of services 1.9%, details the INSEE note .
The continued slowdown in inflation was, in any case, welcomed by Bruno Le Maire on Thursday morning. “I told the French that we would control inflation. I confirm to you that we will be below 4% inflation in 2023,” declared the Minister of the Economy, speaking to France Inter. Hailing a “real success”, the boss of Bercy underlined the “responsible choices” of the government to achieve this result. Although he admitted that prices continued to increase for certain products, the minister considered that “overall, inflation today has been defeated”, promising despite everything to continue “to carry on this fight”.
In recent months, the rise in prices has slowed considerably, without however turning into a clear and lasting decline, to the great misfortune of households. In October, according to INSEE, the rate even collapsed, falling, over one year, from 4.9% to 4%. A fall attributed to “the sharp slowdown over one year in energy prices”, as well as the “continued slowdown in food prices”.
Although encouraging, this observation was expected, with various experts counting on a decline in inflation by the end of the year. In its latest economic report, INSEE said it expected overall inflation to stabilize at “4.4% over one year in December”, as well as an annual average of 5%. For its part, the State wrote, in its finance bill for 2024, that inflation should fall to “4.9%”, on an annual average, stressing however that “contingencies exist in the evolution of prices oil and gas. Despite “jumps in energy prices”, the Banque de France hoped to see inflation fall to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 5.8% on an annual average. In the longer term, “in the absence of a new shock on imported raw materials, total inflation would return to around 2% in 2025,” the experts wrote in their latest macroeconomic projections.
For its part, Asteres also says it expects a drop, “but this trajectory will be slowed down by the expected increases in electricity and tobacco”, which should increase at the start of next year. Among the positive points, the cabinet notes that the fear of an oil shock caused by the conflict between Israel and Hamas has not materialized. “Production prices are still falling,” the firm also notes.
In the meantime, households, whose budgets have been weighed down by inflation for almost two years, continue to tighten their belts. The most modest are also the most affected, underlined the latest social portrait from INSEE. Published this Thursday, another analysis by statisticians also reveals that in October, household consumption of goods collapsed by 0.9% in volume, reaching its lowest level over one month since mid-2014. The decline is even more marked for food goods: “purchases are notably down sharply for drinks, agricultural products, rice and flour, as well as processed fish,” specify the authors. Will the trend continue this Christmas?
