The EU is on a hard Brexit and its negative consequences for the economy. A positive hope is that the prospering East trade could compensate for the expected Brexit-Delle, at least partially. “Of course, the Brexit is not good,” said Michael Harms, Executive Director of the From. “But he also offers a certain degree of Chance.”
Germany and the UK had previously been in the EU, the pioneer of economic liberalism and multilateralism. “We will need new allies,” says Harms, “and we hope that you will find in our neighbors.”
Economic heavyweights
especially in Poland, Hungary or the Czech Republic are now “economic heavyweights”. Particularly in the industries of the future, says Harms, can be the EU’s Eastern neighbours to strategic partners. The equipment is a little out of the sight, because one can think of immediately are the political problems, if Poland and Hungary. The experience of the Eastern Committee show, the German company rolled out in these countries, “the red carpet”. Positive also applies to the foreign trade. “The poles and the Czechs, taken together, we act more so than with China and the United States,” says Harms. Poland is now the seventh largest trading partner of Germany and would soon be without the Brexit – the UK is probably outdated. The whole of Eastern Europe stand now for 20 percent of German foreign trade.
in Addition, offer the Brexit, according to the view of Harms, the opportunity to look even more intense further East. Despite good developments in the relations with Central Asian States in the Eurasian economic Union republics, an Alliance of former Soviet, still largely “a big white spot”. “In Brussels, many feel that it is a Soviet Union-Lite”, says Harms. But that was a strategic error.
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order a Large potential own Uzbekistan, to name just one example. “After 30 years of authoritarian rule, we observe there is a fantastic Opening. The economic reforms pick up speed, and there is a great interest of German companies“, describes the managing Director of the Eastern Committee of the Situation. Uzbekistan, with a population of 33 million is the largest market in Central Asia. The country also has a very good craft and industrial traditions, and is rich in raw materials. “For example, there are gas reserves, which are currently being developed also with the help of German investors.”
Southern Route for the natural gas
When it comes to natural gas, then it would be, especially Turkmenistan, to the game – also with regard to the dispute over the Nord Stream Baltic sea Pipeline 2. Harms makes it clear: “We are very much in favour of establishing geopolitical and economic reasons, the southern gas Corridor. If we were to be able to purchase from Turkmenistan or Azerbaijan natural gas, then that would be excellent for the diversification of European sources of supply.“
China is dedicated to Central Asia, currently a great deal of attention and addiction in the EU-partners for his project of a “new silk road”. Italy is ahead with bilateral agreements. The attitude of German companies is ambivalent, it is clear from a study of the Eastern Committee. On the one hand, German companies hope to gain through cooperation with China, better access to projects along the silk road. On the other hand, scepticism prevails, because the big announcements of investments in the amount of 900 billion dollars so far, not a lot of Concrete is followed. German companies fear that China gives loans to the countries concerned and the projects complete with their own benefits, wants to cover.
Russia is no growth story
light and shadow there is also with a view on Russia. It just is not ongoing discussion about a tightening of sanctions, which leads to a feeling of uncertainty of companies. “The great growth story that was connected to the beginning of the 2000s, with Russia currently, there is no,” says Harms. The forecast for 2019 sun “at a measly 1.3 per cent”. A Central role in the Ukraine conflict plays. “In the end, it will give the solution to the Ukraine problem, no normalization of economic relations with Russia. We have to be realistic.“ The East Committee advocated for a step-by-step procedure: if there is progress of a solution to the conflict in the Ukraine, then it should also lead to movement towards a removal of the sanctions. But, says Harms: “Russia must do more.”
