El Niño Coming to an End, but the Planet Continues to Overheat
The natural climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which has led to a global temperature increase and fueled numerous extreme events around the world, is nearing its end, but its impacts are expected to continue for several more months. According to a bulletin from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released on June 3, El Niño, the “child of the Pacific,” is on its way out, but the world may not necessarily get a break. While it is likely that a La Niña episode will replace it later this year, this opposite phenomenon is not expected to significantly lower temperatures due to the ongoing effects of climate change.
El Niño and La Niña alternate in a cycle known as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which causes the most significant natural variations in the climate system on a seasonal and annual scale. The warm phase of ENSO, El Niño, is associated with warming of the equatorial Pacific, which raises global temperatures. The cold phase, La Niña, leads to cooling. These two sides of the same coin typically last between nine months and a year and occur irregularly every two to seven years.
“The end of El Niño does not mean a pause in long-term climate change, as our planet will continue to warm due to greenhouse gases that trap heat,” warns Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO. The exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play a significant role in the coming months. Despite the cooling influence of a La Niña episode that lasted for three consecutive years (2020-2021-2022), the last nine years have been the hottest on record. El Niño officially began in June 2023, peaked in December of the same year, and continued until May 2024. It was one of the five strongest on record, although less intense than the “super El Niños” of 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.
This episode contributed to the exceptional rise in temperatures in 2023, the hottest year ever recorded. The average global surface temperatures exceeded those of the pre-industrial era by 1.45°C, far surpassing the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Each El Niño typically leads to a global warming of around 0.25°C at its peak. Scientists remain divided on the exact role played by this El Niño in the unprecedented warming observed in 2023.
As El Niño fades away, the planet’s climate challenges persist, highlighting the urgency of addressing climate change and its impacts. While the immediate effects of El Niño may diminish, the long-term consequences of a warming world remain a pressing issue that requires global attention and action.