After the Berlin film festival before the Oscars. It is a little bit like the hit “Good Morning, dear Worries, are you already there?”. The upheavals in the film industry, the current points of dispute, they are all there again. It was the dispute about the entry of streaming services into the movie business, the question of fear of the Dying of cinema, the Balance between Arthouse and Mainstream, or the woman, the Effort to achieve more diversity. Where is the Berlinale, the Oscars are changing? The images are the same.

Eight films to compete at the Gala on Sunday in the king discipline of “Best Film”. Front-runner with ten nominations are Alfonso Cuaróns autobiographical Black-and-White Drama “Rome” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ royale women-power struggle-a tragicomedy “The Favourite”.

there was never A Spanish-speaking Netflix Film and the work of the Greek filmmaker with Hollywood stars such as Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are trophy favorites at the world’s most sought-after Film. Not for the first Time a foreign-language production commencement. So far, however, there was always the “only” foreign Oscars, “Z”, “life is beautiful”, “Tiger and Dragon” and Michael Haneke’s “love” in the year 2013.

Dominant streaming services

makes a splash already the favorites Status of the Cuaróns very personal story of the maid (s)of a middle-class family. It is a double novelty: “Roma” is also the first promising Oscar contender, the was little to see on the big screen.

Netflix brought the lion winner from Venice only to a limited extent in the cinemas, in front of the online start for the streaming customers. The Festivals are known to be at odds when dealing with the new players, many cinemas will boycott movies from Netflix and how it holds the Oscar Academy?

“Green Book” with Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali have a chance.Photo: Reuters/Universal

The question is also exciting, because Netflix, Amazon, Apple and co. are about to start strong in the production and Buy-out contracts, the traditional film license trading with a fixed recycling chain make it obsolete. Already at the Sundance Festival in January has been less talk about the films than about the record-breaking Deals.

Amazon has invested 46 million dollars in five Independent productions, the major Studios had the Look. Netflix advertised during the Berlinale for the first time, the production of German feature films, including Tom Tykwer’s X-films are produced now for the Americans. And starting in September, Netflix pays in the local film funding pot, after a long, tough fight.

business is changing dramatically

Even if the German cinema year 2018 has been, a devastating balance sheet, similar to the recent holiday weekend in the United States: The cinema is dying in all of this, as little as in the spread of television 50 years ago. But the business will change dramatically. Facebook wants to get in on the ticket sales. Producers, distributors, distributors, cinema operators, they are living in wild times.

The Oscars had been concentrating for a while on an audience-oriented art-house cinema. Wonderful films such as “Moonlight” or most recently “The Shape of Water” contributed to the victory, made but little cash. Now blockbusters are here again: The Comic adaptation of “Black Panther” with the African-American Star Chadwick Boseman (7 nominations), as well as the musician Biopics “A Star is Born” with Lady Gaga (8 mentions) and “Bohemian Rhapsody” with Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury (5 mentions) to occur also in the main category.

Ryan Cooglers superhero movie “Black Panther” is a played in America, $ 700 million. With the Dick Cheney political satire “Vice”, the racism-stories “Green Book” and “BlacKkKlansman” (by Spike Lee) comes to the eight candidates together on a U.S. Box Office total of 1.35 billion dollars. According to the trade journal “Variety” was no longer the since 2010.

This is not to be counted in the “Roma”-fade-in: Netflix, notorious for its lack of transparency in company policy, does not publish Figures.

“The Favourite” with Olivia Colman photo: Tw. Century Fox

“Roma,” or “Black Panther”? The immense range of films provides for additional power in this year. Or wins but the Feelgood Movie “the Green Book” about an African-American concert pianist and his Italian-American driver in the South of the 60s? The racism is explained to be a kind of natural phenomenon that can be overcome by good-hearted people. Spike Lee’s story about a black police officers to the Ku Klux Klan on the other hand, shows the structural discrimination in the United States.

Strive for diversity

what is the reaction of the Academy to such an extremely different Narrative, particularly as it has become significantly various according to the #oscarssowhite campaign in 2016? Since it became known that over 90 percent of the members are White and Three quarters male, over 2000 academics added the most new. More women, more African Americans, more foreigners. Until last Tuesday, the now about 8000 members were able to cast their vote.

This Oscar writes a story: Many pre-event reports, are influenced by this Tenor. Not only because of Netflix, not only because of the first Comic book movie in the Top-titles, or the Year after #OscarsSoWhite and MeToo is actually dominated by the Effort to diversity (only in the Director’s again not a woman). But also, because the camera-Oscars almost been in the commercial break banned. And because of Kevin Hart.

for the First time without a Moderator

for the First time in 30 years, the Gala in the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles without a Moderator on the stage. The black Comedian should set the mood, but his homophobic Tweets and Show spells from ten years ago (example: He doesn’t hope that his son were to be gay) instead of the criticism. It was only when Hard its withdrawal was announced, he apologized for the “insensitive words from the past”.

He wanted to not be distracted by its presence. Now, many Stars and previous Oscar winner present the Academy Awards, including Javier Bardem, Daniel Craig, Frances McDormand, Michael Keaton, Jennifer Lopez and Charlize Theron.

The Power and how to attain them. The loneliness of it. The powerless and how they claim that the Oscar-contender action. The music films follow the rise of two Superstars and their effort to remain human. Adam McKay’s bitter Farce “Vice” shows the Corruption and the ruthlessness of powerful politicians: Dick Cheney as a taciturn predecessor of Trump. “The Favourite” moved the battle to the British court, including abuse of power and sexual violence among women. And the racism-films tell the story of the fight to be no longer excluded. Lonely you all are. Also, the maid in “Roma”, heard only so long to the family, as no mountains of Laundry generated.

scene from “Roma”photo by: Carlos Somonte/Netflix

Should win, will win – should win, will win: It is a popular game in the US media, to create lists of probable and desired winners. Will win: Glenn Close as best actress and “wife of the Nobel laureate”, for the seventh Time, maybe it will work finally.

Should win: Olivia Colman as a sickly, grumpy Queen Anne in “The Favourite”, the trick ladies-in-waiting, your intriguers, a true Souveränin. For men, the most bets on Rami Malek as Queen-Star in “Bohemian Rhapsody”, where a number of Christian bale’s understated in the Dick-Cheney-Fatsuit in “Vice”. The only way Gary Oldman was stupid as Winston Churchill in “The darkest hour” is a similar to tumb-brilliant figure, and wore only in the previous year, the trophy of it.

Here is the masterpiece, the conventional feel-good cinema

In the case of the non-English speaking films, it’s hard to make bets. Wins “Roma” is not the main prize, is wearing Cuarón the international trophy of it – unless, of course, his work makes itself in such a competition is that it gets in any category the most votes.

Then Pavel Pawlikowskis European film award-winner of the “Cold war” had the best chance – or perhaps in Hollywood since his Oscar for “the lives of Others”, the popular German contender Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck? The local debate to be a “decent” artist-drama “work without the author” to morality and geschichtsk suffered of the movie played in the United States.

And the main prize? The experts confirm the “Roma” the best opportunities, the madness of “The Favourite” in the U.S., less high in price than in Europe. Also, the “Green Book” is considered to be the top candidate, some hoping for a “Black Panther”. Desire and reality, tells the story of the cinema has always been, you also characterise the annual Oscar speculation.

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“Black Panther” in the cinema of humanity

Andreas Busche

Here is the masterpiece, the conventional feel-good movie: One of “Roma” and “Green Book” common cradle. The silent films are among the eight candidates. The times are loud enough.