(Obi.no): Yesterday’s figures from STATISTICS norway showed a surprisingly high growth in consumer prices.
The so-called core inflation (consumer price index adjusted for tax changes and energy) rose 2.2 percent on an annual basis in november, against the expected 1.9 per cent.
twelve-month growth did thus jumped from 1.6 per cent in October.
more Expensive foods and the fly
Food prices and airline tickets were the main driving forces, and the promise alone core inflation by 0.6 percentage points.
chief economist Jan Ludvig Andreassen in the Eika Group draws forth also the more expensive the food, but in addition hold the higher electricity prices.
These contributed to an annual growth of the consumer price index at around 3.5 per cent in november.
Food and electricity are groups of products as used by all of us, and this affects the household economy hard, writes Andreassen on his blog.
– Pressure from all sides,
According to the sjeføkonomen this is just one of more bad news for households “which already has reduced its saving rate to a minimum”.
– Børsnedgang and a fall in house prices now come in the autumn, at the same time, Norges Bank ensures that most people get more expensive mortgages, thanks to its renteheving in september, he continues.
He now believes it’s haunted for the christmas shopping period, “which probably will be very weak this year”.
the Optimism and fremtidstroen are falling in a situation where the household finances are under pressure from several directions, type Andreassen.
Predicts double rate hike
And further pressure will it be if Handelsbanken Capital Markets get the right in their predictions. They believe Norges Bank will increase its key rate two times in 2019.
– Some of the rise in prices for food and tickets can be temporary, and regardless, we think core inflation will fall back in December. When it is said, is momentumet in inflation larger than Norges Bank has set for itself, and we believe the first part of the yield curve will be kept intact, wrote senior economist Marius Gonsholt Hov in a comment yesterday.
– despite increased uncertainty globally, we believe the bank will keep to the plan about two interest rate hikes next year, he added.
Believe Norges Bank to slow down
Now let SSB today forward figures which showed strong growth in the Norwegian economy in October, but DNB Markets believe Norges Bank will signal a calmer attitude to future interest rate increases in their new rentebane that will be presented this week.
In a forhåndsomtale of this week’s board, published last week, pointed to the investment firm on several developments since the previous board (in september) that supports a lower rentebane.
weaker various companies ‘ growth prospects and lower interest rates utelavere oljeprisersvakere growth than expected hjemmeinflasjonen back to the expectation
– But we think the Norges Bank will consider at least some of this as temporary and still signal a rise in interest rates in 1. quarter. We believe rentebanen after 1. quarter will be lowered, wrote, DNB Markets then.
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