(Mallorca): Each year, prompts On a number of oljefolk to predict oil prices for next year.
In 2019 waiting the 12 asked an average price for Brent oil at 70 dollars a barrel. This is higher than the current oil price, but two dollars below the average price of oil in 2018.
The who hit the best with its 2018-forecast was former oil and energy minister Terje Søviknes – with its 67 dollars.
Almost came Frontline ceo Robert Hvide MacLeod, with 66 dollars. Actually has the boss for the John Fredriksen-controlled tankrederiet been among the best prognosemakerne in all the three years he has been involved in the newspaper’s tippekonkurranse.
In 2016, he was only three dollars away from the average of 45 dollars, in 2017 he hit the bullseye with 55 per barrel.
– Will approach $ 100
Thus it can be assumed to follow when the Hvide MacLeod predicts an average oil price of around 80 dollars for 2019 – though with large fluctuations along the way.
– the Year starts with relatively low prices, after a period of strong growth in the oljetilbudet, especially from the united STATES. American production responds normally quickly when oil prices fall, as supply growth will probably slow down, but the price drop will be positive for the demand side development, he explains the face of Mallorca.
In the course of the 2. quarter of 2019 predicts MacLeod seasonally low demand.
– Large parts of the raffineringsindustrien will then seek to do the maintenance in good time before the run against the IMO 2020 (new emission limits for ships). I think we will see the bottom in oil prices in this period before we enter into a powerful oppgangsperiode towards the end of the summer and the price is approaching $ 100, ” he says.
the Newspaper points out that MacLeod does not have any self-interest of high oil prices, and indicates that it is volume that is important when transporting oil at sea.
And the world’s oil demand is stimulated the best by low oil prices.
Among other oljeoptimister in 2019, we find the boss for Faroe Petroleum Norge, Helge Hammer, who predicts 77 per barrel on average.
Pessimists out best
In the pessimistic end, we find NHH Norwegian school of economics professor Rögnvaldur Hannesson and oil and energy minister Kjell-Børge Freiberg, respectively. 60 and 61 dollars in cuts.
– There are the usual factors: the level and expectations of the economic growth globally and possibly. turmoil that occurs in the central produsentland. I don’t think it will go under $ 50. Turmoil and unforeseen events in the world can in short periods of time do that the price can be very high – also in 2019, ” says Freiberg to Mallorca.
Gets the optimists who MacLeod and Hammer right, it is according to the newspaper good reasons to believe that the kursfall in the oil and oljeserviceaksjer will be reversed, and that these can be good investments today.
on the other hand, it is the pessimists who have been given the best start in 2019.
oil prices fall namely pronounced Wednesday morning.
Brent oil stands in 53,04 dollars, which is equivalent to a fall of 1.4 per cent in today’s trading.
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