Russia is expanding its influence in the Crimea. Therefore, there are Considerations to send OSCE observers to the sea of Azov. There, Russia has blocked the transit of Ukrainian ships. Political observers do not expect, however, that President Putin is thrown. The mountains for him to domestic political risks. the By Silke Bigalke, Moscow by Silke Bigalke

Silke Bigalke, born in 1983, reported the Süddeutsche Zeitung of Stockholm. She studied in Cologne, politics and Economics at diploma and while studying the Cologne journalist school for politics and Economics. In 2011, she came to the süddeutsche Zeitung, since the beginning of 2014, she is a correspondent for Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Iceland.

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If nothing else helps, can you try it with Humor. You can then describe what happened at the end of November on the road from Kerch, so: By Ukrainian ships wanted to go through Ukrainian waters from a Ukrainian port to another Ukrainian port, you have provoked Russia. Written by the one who calls himself “Darth Putin” and on Twitter, a six-digit number of readers.

His statement is true for the most part. Three ships of the Ukrainian Navy wanted to go through the Straits into the sea of Azov, an inland sea between Russia and Ukraine. Both countries have every right to navigate freely there, because you have agreed in 2003 in a contract. However, since the annexation of Crimea to Russia sees the Strait between Crimea and the mainland as a pure Russian. It has built a bridge over it, and only needs a Tanker across to the sea of Azov block.

The annexation of Crimea, the construction of the bridge, blocking violate international law. Nevertheless, it is discussed, who contributes as much to blame for the incident, whom it benefits, what alternatives there are. A new idea is not to send observers from the organization for security and cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Eastern Ukraine, where a war, in which Moscow is involved covered. You could also monitor the sea of Azov.

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It will move to Moscow is unlikely to relent. There, Vladimir Putin, as usual, deviates from it, to justify its policy of violence as self-defense. For the impact he made on the government in Kiev as a “party of war” solely responsible for the war. To the INF Treaty, the United States, which, allegedly, want to upgrade with the previously forbidden nuclear medium-range missiles. “What are we going to respond? We will do the Same,” says Putin and denies that such missiles already stationed.

Russia knows only one way to answer: By “overreacting and exaggerating”

the President Would yield to the Western pressure, says the Russian external policy expert Vladimir Frolov, regardless of whether the sea of Azov, or in the INF Treaty, would be perceived by his administration as weak. This is, in turn, “is a significant domestic political risk”. The Russian economy is stagnating, reforms are advancing, and they did not come down well Totobo with the population and the complains about the rising retirement age, rising gasoline costs. With Crimea, Putin can only win: In a survey of the state Institute VTsIOM, 93 percent said that the Russian frontier would have done the post correctly. 79 percent of the languages, just like your President, from a Ukrainian provocation. To worsen relations with the West, says Frolov, costs Putin less, but to give in.

it May be that the Ukrainian ships docked there on a collision. If the Russians have applied in Russian or international waters, is not clear. Anyway, you were already shot from the bridge and on the way back, through the Black sea. Why have boarded the Russian ships anyway? Also, there are several theories. Maybe it was a knee-jerk reaction, perhaps in retaliation for the Russian fishing boat North, which had put Ukraine in March. Maybe it was the fact that in September, two Ukrainian patrol ships had successfully tested, whether they come unmolested through the Straits. Ukrainian media celebrated this as a small victory. Kiev had also announced that the port of Berdyansk at the naval base in the Azov sea and Nato ships there to invite. So a visit is unrealistic, the ships would need Russian permission, and could be reached without hardly a peaceful way to the sea of Azov. Moscow feels but apparently, the idea provoked. “Russia has overwhelming military Power in the Region”, says Russian military expert Alexander Golz. “Kiev will have to recognize sooner or later as reality.” The Ukraine have the right not to follow Russia’s rules, and to ask the international community for help. It’s a risky strategy.

“There is a fear that we will have in the coming months, many such conflicts,” says the Russian political scientist Tatyana Stanowaja. Ukraine will continue to test the red lines. Russia will continue to be the only kind of answers it know, by “overreacting and exaggerating.” She compares the country with a squatter, the belief that the house really belong to him. Each Time, if the real owner challenge, I’m feeling vulnerable in this house. Not because Russia’s military would be weak. But because it had little opportunity to respond in a correct, legal manner.

Russia is already behaving as the Azov sea is a Russian lake. Possible the annexation of the Crimea, so Russia is gaining influence in the Region. With the anti-aircraft missiles on the Peninsula, has upgraded it after the collision in the case of Kerch, there are large parts of the Black sea spanning. There, it has renewed its fleet and increased, in these days it holds a military Exercise in the Black sea. Could the OSCE observers on the Strait of Kerch is really for the free passage? In the East of Ukraine to monitor whether the Minsk peace agreement is adhered to. But it is not.