According to the will of Angela Merkel’s New CDU leader, Kramp-Karrenbauer to be her successor in the Chancellery. There are several ways. But none is without risk.

commentary by Nico Fried Berlin Nico Fried

Nico Fried, since 2007, the SZ-Parliamentary office in Berlin. Together with his colleagues he reported on the people and events in the Chancellery, the ministries, the Parliament and other places where policy is made. The native of Ulm since 1996 she lives in the capital, where he worked for four years for the Berliner Zeitung. 2000 peace came to the süddeutsche Zeitung, and reported to the Parliament editorial on German foreign policy, the former PDS, and later on the Green. In 2004, he took over the journalistic observation of the SPD, three years later, the office line. Nico Fried, born in 1966, studied in Munich and Hamburg in political science and a master of arts complete.

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Probably Angela Merkel herself has not anticipated that she would have so much fun with it, give up Power. Merkel and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer have played “all in”, as they say in Poker: with last. Kramp-Karrenbauer through their political move to Berlin, Merkel with the early waiver of the party Chairman.

The part of the Power, the Merkel is now AKK has passed, is like a first piece of the pie. Your old rival, Friedrich Merz and Wolfgang Schäuble, had the Look, an extra portion of whipped cream, the Merkel enjoys quite alone.

However, the Transition in the Post-Merkel time has just started. His end would be perfect, if the Chancellor’s office would remain in the hands of the Union – at least from the point of view of the CDU and the CSU. Merkel’s ambition, even with Kramp-Karrenbauer, is likely to be large.

It does nothing to change that AKK is deposited here and there by the Chancellor. This is priced in. For the ACC, in turn, it would be promising to lead the next election campaign is already in the office. But it is for the Chancellor significantly heavier, the Power in the state to get rid of the Power in the party.


Kramp-Karrenbauer wants to stand up to Merkel – “where it is necessary”

The new CDU Chairman announces, to want to, at least occasionally, with the Chancellor create. First of all, Tümbet you want to make migration and security policy.

For AKK as Chancellor, the SPD is too weak, the Green is too strong

A SPD that has made Merkel three times to the Chancellor ‘ s political life without Further with Kramp-Karrenbauer. However, the probability that Andrea Nahles, and Olaf Scholz, for a continuation of the Grand coalition received with the ACC at the top is a majority in his own party, is low.

On the attempt, in turn, to bring STH without elections, with a Jamaica-coalition of the Union, FDP and the Green party to Power, the Greens have no interest in. You stand there in the polls much better than with the modest size of their faction in the existing Parliament.

The SPD is so weak, the Greens are too strong for a Chancellor Kramp-Karrenbauer. The straightest way for Angela Merkel to bring their favourite to become Chancellor, which leads, therefore, to hold early elections. Then the ACC would not lead the election campaign while still in office. For the two CDU women, it would have the advantage that less time for ambitious Prime Ministers of their party would be to bring as a candidate for Chancellor to the game.

provide opportunities for new elections for a question of Trust with the target of 2019 is enough: Merkel could accept such personal responsibility for a bad CDU results in European and regional elections. And by the end of 2019, the SPD will terminate very likely the Grand coalition anyway. The aversion to the Rule has eaten so deep into the party, in the coalition agreement mid-term review can’t be good enough, many of the social-democratic opponents of Black-and-appease Red.

would also be Conceivable to replace a Chancellor Merkel after its cancellation by a minority government AKK – when the President was in. A satisfaction would be the minority government, Wolfgang Schäuble: He had argued for this model even before the great coalition was formed. On the other hand, it lacked the irony, if he had to swear in as the President of the Bundestag in AKK the candidate that he wanted to prevent, of all things, now. Because Merkel would probably have their fun.