Ukrainians have a sense of timing, and communication. This Wednesday, October 12, from kyiv, the Ministry of Defense published a video in the form of an ode to France and its Caesar guns, with a musical background “I go and I come” by Serge Gainsbourg, while asking for more military means. No doubt: kyiv keeps an eye on French television programs and intends to keep Emmanuel Macron under pressure.
This Wednesday evening, the French president is indeed devoting his evening to developing and explaining his foreign policy in the program L’Event, on France 2, the largest part relating to Ukraine. “Emmanuel Macron wants to send the message that our freedom and our democracy have a price, underlines Christian Lequesne, professor at Sciences Po and author of Ethnography of the Quai d’Orsay (CNRS Editions, 2017). No head of state or government in Europe cannot be completely insensitive to the shifts in opinion that will manifest themselves with the winter and energy prices. It is essential to continue to explain to the populations the reasons for our commitment alongside Ukraine.”
The president’s words will weigh, and not only in France. Since the start of the war, Emmanuel Macron’s attitude has focused criticism within the Western coalition. His regular phone calls with Vladimir Putin and his stated desire “not to humiliate Russia” go down very badly in countries that have lived under Soviet occupation, in particular Poland and the Baltic countries. “The phone calls between Macron and Putin really didn’t give anything positive, explained to us the former Secretary General of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in September. Conversely, this relationship helps Putin to build an image for himself. , to show that he is not isolated, that he is keeping in touch with international leaders… We have decided to isolate Putin and his country, and this accommodating attitude of France towards Russia is creating a division in Europe .”
European unity is, however, an area in which Paris has worked particularly hard since February. As President of the Council of the EU, France harmonized positions and delivered a message of unity against Russian aggression. The seven packages of sanctions are there to prove it. “France has completely played the European game, continues Christian Lequesne. Emmanuel Macron understood that Europe was a lever for the expression of his foreign policy, in the continuity of his predecessors since Valéry Giscard d’Estaing.” On October 6, in Prague, the meeting of the 44 Heads of State of the European Political Community, a cooperation body launched at the initiative of Paris, crowned this desire for strategic dialogue on the continent.
The French president also seems to have changed his discourse on Russia since June. “Macron’s visit to kyiv, with Draghi, Scholz and Iohannis [the Italian, German and Romanian leaders], was an important moment, a moment of changeover”, underlines Christian Lequesne. On the spot, on June 16, Paris announces its support for kyiv’s entry into the process of joining the EU, and promises more military aid.
An emergency, as France is criticized on this issue. “This summer, we have seen a change in the rhetoric and decisions on the French side after the return from kyiv, says an external adviser to the Ukrainian government. But according to the data we have, France is not at all to its level of great military power in the aid it provides to kyiv…”
An observation shared in L’Express by the Defense specialist François Heisbourg, who observed on the spot that France delivered only 1.4% of Western weapons received by Ukraine. “Ultimately, the French have done almost nothing, adds Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former boss of NATO. Even if French weapons are appreciated and crucial for the Ukrainians, France remains the first military power in the European Union and has the largest defense industry on the continent… Clearly, it is boxing below its class and delivering very few weapons to Kyiv.”
Emmanuel Macron knows he is expected on the subject. Earlier this week, he judged that we were entering “a new phase of the war in Ukraine”, after the explosion of the bridge linking Russia and Crimea on Saturday, then the massive Russian bombardments in retaliation on Monday. Its Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, has listed a list of deliveries for Eastern Europe: Leclerc tanks in Romania, Rafale planes in Lithuania and Griffon armored vehicles in Estonia. The president, in parallel, announced a new fund of 100 million euros for military aid to kyiv. A gesture appreciated, but still far from the billion euros already committed by the British…
