The world’s great dictatorships are meeting to defy the West: China, Russia, Iran, plus the huge democracy of India. From afar it seems as if a new power bloc is rising. But if you take a closer look at this Shanghai cooperation organization, which is currently staging itself in Uzbekistan as an alternative to the free world, you will see a pseudo-giant.
The eight largest Western countries, including Germany, currently have a combined economic output of 40 trillion dollars. The eight states that are currently meeting in Uzbekistan have a combined total of $20 trillion – half that. Three-quarters of this is in China, which is currently experiencing economic turmoil given its zero-Covid policy. Not to mention the demographic problem that threatens future advancement.
It’s true: freedom is under pressure worldwide, authoritarian states are gaining relative power, democracies are losing ground. But the free countries are stronger than they think, the autocratic part of the world is weaker than we fear. The club of autocratic states only defines its alliances negatively: by rejecting Western ideas. They maintain alliances of convenience that last only as long as interests converge. China likes to present itself as an ally of Russia in the Ukraine war – and did so on Thursday, when Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin in Uzbekistan for the first time since the beginning of the Ukraine war.
In truth, however, Beijing is keeping its distance, refusing arms deliveries to Moscow and benefiting above all from the cheap prices for oil and gas that Russia has to offer to buyers in Asia after the delivery stop to Europe.
But despite all the differences, the West has a unifying idea that outlasts short-term alliances of convenience: that justice and freedom are the best basis for security and prosperity. Germany has disdained this idea for the past three decades — forming alliances of convenience with autocracies to get cheap energy from Russia to sell cars in China.
The disastrous end of the Russia policy shows that the Federal Republic has to learn again how to choose its friends. Alliances of convenience will have to be entered into with the enemies of freedom – but you can only rely on countries that share your own ideals.
