Will there be enough lithium and other raw materials needed to manufacture electric batteries? Enough charging stations? How to ensure that the cars will not cost too much for the most modest purses?
After the success of Tesla, built solely on electric vehicles, most of the major groups in the sector plan to invest tens of billions of dollars in the years to come to transform themselves.
Stellantis (PSA-Fiat-Chrysler) wants to sell 100% of electric vehicles in Europe by 2030. Toyota plans to launch 30 models in this segment for the same date. General Motors aims to stop producing cars with combustion engines by 2035.
They are encouraged in this direction by the authorities.
The latest, California on Thursday banned the sale of traditional new cars from 2035.
– Demand assured –
The European Union has also initiated a ban on the sale of new petrol, diesel or hybrid cars by 2035, while China wants at least half of new vehicles by that date to be electric, hybrid or hydrogen.
Automobile manufacturers are warned, “it’s up to them to manage to prepare their stocks”, remarks Jessica Caldwell, of the specialist firm Edmunds.
“It was still said recently that the biggest obstacles to the adoption of electric vehicles would be acceptance by motorists and the price”, underlines the specialist.
But driven by consumers who are increasingly sensitive to the impacts of climate change, the demand is there.
In the United States, for example, General Motors claims to have more than 150,000 pre-orders for the electric version of its Silverado pickup, which will not be available until 2023. It takes several months for a Tesla, the flagship brand in the sector. .
“The question now seems more about whether they can source the necessary materials,” notes Ms. Caldwell.
– “Drastic” shifts –
“Governments can decide as much as they want on subsidies or new regulations for electric vehicles, we are currently facing a lack of palladium, nickel, lithium”, abounds Karl Brauer of the specialized site iseecars.
Admittedly, the problem is largely linked to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but “no one would have predicted the escalation in prices or the difficulty in obtaining these materials a year ago”, recalls- he. Which highlights the fact that the situation “can change drastically at any time”.
Manufacturers are struggling to limit the hazards.
They build their own battery factories, create joint ventures with specialized manufacturers or enter into partnerships with mining companies.
The German groups Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz even signed agreements directly with the Canadian government on Monday to consolidate their supply of rare metals.
But the market remains, as for oil, global, recalls Mr. Brauer: as long as the supply is limited, “there will always be someone to pay a little more”.
In this regard, other aspects of the transition to electric such as the conversion of production lines are ultimately quite easy “because they can control it”, he says.
– Aid under conditions –
Local regulations can also complicate the task, as in the United States where a recent law conditions an aid of 7,500 dollars for the purchase of an electric car to certain elements, such as a final assembly in North America.
The Automotive Innovation Alliance, an industry lobby in the United States, has calculated that around 70% of the 72 electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen models currently on the market could not, as they stand, claim this grant.
For Garrett Nelson, analyst for CFRA, this new law will clearly favor Tesla, GM and Ford in the United States, to the detriment of European and Asian manufacturers.
After California’s announcement, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation also estimated in a press release that it would be “extremely complicated” to achieve the state’s objectives due to “external factors”: inflation , electric or hydrogen charging stations, supply chains, labor, availability and price of critical materials, and the continuing shortage of semiconductors.
“These are complex, interrelated and global issues that go far beyond the control (of California authorities) or the auto industry,” says the Alliance.