The new SPD-tip wants to negotiate with the Union, the coalition agreement on the major points, new. At the party Congress at the end of this week you would like to get a mandate for it. For the case that the Christian Democrats do not occur on the new claims, it is said, would terminate the coalition.

CDU and CSU have excluded “renegotiation” iron. Of course, all Parties know that you will be very bargain – whatever you call the talks in the coalition Committee.

Many have had enough of the Grand coalition

The question is, how much political space the party has yet to the SPD to meet again. Out of concern for the direction of the struggle in the SPD and the Christian and the social Democrats stood last with the basic pension is already a great success that went well beyond the coalition agreement as Agreed. The willingness to meet further wishes of the SPD, with the CDU and CSU, now very small, especially in the parliamentary group, where the concessions in the case of the basic pension is hardly bearable.

In any case, the Union will put in renegotiations own demands on the table, which is usually the opposite of the purpose of the SPD: tax relief for companies of, for example, instead of a higher minimum wage. Not only from the SPD, also in the CDU there are many who have had enough of the Big coalition. With maximum claims you can to sabotage the negotiations, without open responsibility for it.

An agreement, it holds therefore, in the Union rather unlikely. The new left-wing SPD leadership in urgent need of success. The weakened tip of the CDU to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Chancellor Angela Merkel , but can make precisely because of their weak concessions. The yoke together, if you believe in the CDU.

Merkel could with a “non-genuine” issue of Trust, provoke new elections, with a vote so that you would lose on purpose.

Should I terminate the SPD its participation in the Government, she prefers to either their six Ministers from the government, or be dismissed from Merkel. In theory, the Chancellor could then advertise it in Green, and the FDP for a second attempt at a “Jamaica”coalition. The Greens have no interest in the surveys, today, more than twice as high as in the General election in 2017.

Merkel could, as SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schröder in 2005 – provoking with a so-called “fake” question of Confidence new elections: a vote so you would lose on purpose. However, the decision would be, whether it is in fact new elections are held, not in your Hand, but that of Federal President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Could he elections, would be the 14-year-old Era Merkel to a premature end.

strategists and observers point to a different Option, would be for Germany, although not new, but in the Iberian Peninsula or Scandinavia quite tested is a minority government. Merkel has always said that she was “no friend” of a government without a stable majority. Excluded you not has the ability.

From the point of view of the CDU and the CSU, a minority government would offer some definite advantages: Merkel could appoint six new Ministers from their own ranks, and thus ambitions are breast-feeding. You could make your desire successor Kramp-karrenbauer to the Vice-Chancellor, what this would entail in terms of the Chancellor candidacy in a better location. And you could avoid new elections, which would probably lead to a power struggle in her party and to losses at the ballot box.

Merkel has two priorities

of Course, would not be a government without a stable majority fully capable of action. You could bring in its own legislation in the Bundestag, would have to search for it but always new majorities. Also you would have to expect that in corporate or electoral issues, and the majorities against them. An immediate state of emergency would not exist but: just last week, the CDU/CSU and SPD approved the Budget for the next year. It is valid until at least the end of 2020.

Merkel has promised in the Takeover of their last term of office, to give Germany stability in a world going to dangerous, in a Europe drifting apart. Of particular importance for the second half of the year 2020, when Germany takes over the EU presidency.

In Conjunction with its long-time Minister and a new EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would like to bring Merkel to Europe once again “progress”. It would be poison in any case, Germany would be busy at this time with the election campaign or coalition negotiations. Of course, a minority government would limit the Chancellor: you could commitments at an EU summit actually nothing, warned Merkel once, because you would know whether you’d find in the Bundestag, then a majority in favour.

With a view on the German presidency of the EU Council for Merkel, as observers believe, the following two priorities: Should it come to elections, then this should be done quickly – with an election date in the coming March, at the latest, at the beginning of April. This would allow Germany before 1. July has a government capable of action. But Merkel tried it with a minority government, Which would then have to hold but instead, at least until the end of the year, with the Option of the Bundestag elections in the spring as planned in the fall of 2021.

Created: 02.12.2019, 20:41 PM