Brussels
This will not be a marathon, but a warm-up lap for a meeting in the flesh at Brussels, probably before mid-July. This Friday, the Twenty-Seven will debate for the first time by videoconference from the recovery plan presented at the end of may by the Commission. On the table, the € 750 billion that the institution would like to borrow on the markets and redistribute to the member States in the form of loans ($250 billion) and budgetary subsidies ($500 billion, of which 310 billion injected in tranches in the country) in order to boost the economies of the Union. On the table also, the draft budget of the european 2021-2027 (1100 billion) on which the recovery plan is attached and which has been revisited to take account of the crisis of the sars coronavirus.
of Course, as pointed out at the Elysée palace, none of the member States does not call into question the need for a recovery plan and, above all, the principle of the use of a loan common for the fund. Not even the frugal (the netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Austria). The blockages are, however, real. “It will be very difficult to get an agreement,” warns one EU official, speaking of a compromise, not in July, as do Paris and Berlin, but before “the end of the summer.”
see also : The risk of a recovery in heterogeneous weighs in on the future of the euro area
To the east, notably Hungary and the Czech Republic, we judge the financial envelope is far too important. To the south, Italy and Spain – the two countries with the largest share of transfers -there is no question that these grants will sign the return to control is too strong of Brussels on the reforms implemented. Hence the crucial question of the governance of the fund.
Berlin would like to mainly stick to the package of 500 billion euros in subsidies proposed with Paris, without the addition of loans as has been done by the Commission. France would agree on this point. The divergences between Paris and Berlin, which also exist on the use of budgetary resources of the Union are not prohibitive.
red Lines
The real concern focuses on the frugal. In Brussels, no one – including the president of the european Council, Charles Michel has forgotten the hilarious meeting of the Twenty-Seven at the end of February devoted to the budget. The frugal had held the high hand with their counterparts during 27 hours. The eyes are again trained on them. A source in brussels summed up the situation thus: “The difficulties are the same as four months ago. Except that the one has in addition to the crisis of the sars coronavirus and the recovery plan”. In a common platform published Wednesday in the Financial Times, the first ministers of this little club said that “important principles that must not be thrown overboard”.
see also : european recovery Plan: “One must know who repays and when”
Their red lines are, at this stage, the following: an envelope, smaller, of loans rather than grants, for targeting of funds – subject to conditions – on the countries most affected by the crisis, more clarity on the refund (who will pay and when?). The tone wants to be constructive, the four signatories, acknowledging that it is in their interest to see the economies of the bloc recover very quickly. Are they also welded than they were in February? Probably not, because they know that they bear a huge responsibility in case of failure. “Sebastian Kurz (austrian chancellor, ED) will be the first one to go,” said a diplomat from one of these countries, speaking of the proximity of Austria with Germany and Italy, but also of the political space available to the austrian chancellor in a coalition consisting of the Greens. Lip, one admits, on the Danish side, it will be necessary to resolve this that there is at least a little bit of grants in the plan. Many argue that the Dutch Mark Rutte, stuck politically by the christian democrats, will be the hardest.
to convince them To reconcile their positions, France and other countries seem to have already made a cross on the removal of the rebate on the european budget which these frugal – with Germany – benefit from it. Insufficient. Other compromises will be necessary for boarding, including a better balance between loans and grants and the right dosage on the conditionalities. One thing is for sure, a lot of Europeans are going to use to blow up this club, in trying to isolate the most badass. Paris and Berlin, which were a milestone in the recovery plan, will be in the front line. “The political capital put into this initiative is considerable,” admitted one French side.
SujetsCharles MichelSebastian KurzMark RutteEuropeUnion européennePlan of relance30 commentairesHonestmanle 19/06/2020 at 09:00 am
Don’t forget that Germany supports Turkey, which is trying to rebuild the ottoman empire….the enemy is Germany, it is necessary to open the eyes…
Isidore Plantinle 19/06/2020 at 08:53 pm
the “frugal”you say ???? It is not so much frugality, that of egoism, the national “every man for himself and the others burst from”A refund in the sum of the fable:the grasshopper and The ant..but the European Union was created precisely so that the weakest are protected..
I therefore propose to replace the term “frugal” by “the egoïstes”…
Muirle 19/06/2020 at 08:49
We have not seen such a dynamic european for twenty-five years
Trump, the Brexit muddy and the covid have had an effect opposite of what one would have imagined
Rather than diluting the european Union, these events have strengthened in an integration, regarded now as indispensable
Read the 30 comments