On the way according to the polls to an unprecedented second place, the nationalist and anti-immigration Sweden Democrats (SD), a long pariah on the political scene, is now in a position to help the right to return to power.
The first female head of the Swedish government since taking office last November, outgoing Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson enjoys the strongest voter confidence to stay in her post, far ahead of her conservative rival from the Moderates party, Ulf Kristersson.
But the campaign was dominated by themes favorable to the right-wing opposition: criminality and deadly settling of scores between gangs, integration problems, soaring energy bills…
“Inflation has soared as has crime and shootings, and these are factors that should benefit the right-wing opposition, but for the moment it is very, very tight,” notes Patrik Öhberg, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
The two probable new alliances (Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party and Center Party on the left side; Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and SD for the right) are key.
According to the latest polls, very fluctuating, the left “constellation” would obtain between 49.1% and 50.1%, against 49.2% to 49.9% for the right/extreme right.
The previous elections in 2018 had resulted in a long political crisis, with four months to form a minority government led by the Social Democrats.
– “Huge swing” –
“This time, we can say that one of the two constellations will have a majority, (but) impossible to guess which one based on the polls,” said Jan Teorell, professor of political science at Stockholm University.
The gradual end of the isolation of the SD, and the emergence of the party as a possible first formation of the union of the rights are “a huge shift for Swedish society”, underlines Anders Lindberg, columnist for the left-wing daily Aftonbladet.
Heir to a neo-Nazi group when it was formed in the late 1980s, the party languished at 1% less than 20 years ago and only entered parliament in 2010.
With an anti-immigration discourse coupled with the defense of the traditional welfare state, he was able to conquer the working classes, the retired and the low-skilled, mainly among men, by surfing on the large migratory arrivals in Sweden (nearly 500,000 for ten years, or about 5% of the population).
“Crime, immigration take center stage, where when you look at history, Swedish elections have always been about the welfare state, the economy, jobs. It’s a tectonic movement “, observes Mr. Lindberg.
Forty-eight people have been killed by firearms in the country since the start of the year, in a gang war that has tarnished the image of the Nordic country.
One of the last debates between Ms Andersson and Mr Kristersson saw them promise to act on a mother of a 12-year-old girl who was killed two years ago by a stray bullet.
Sweden, engaged in a delicate process of joining NATO and which will take the rotating presidency of the European Union on January 1, has been governed for eight years by the Social Democrats, the country’s leading party since the 1930s. .
In ten months at the helm after her predecessor Stefan Löfven left politics, Magdalena Andersson has managed to relaunch her camp. With a slogan “our Sweden can do better” and a chant “Four more years”.
“Many trust him as Prime Minister, including those who do not think they will vote for the Social Democrats”, stresses Jan Teorell.
While membership of NATO had hitherto been a red line and a foil for the Social Democrats, she convinced her camp that the Russian invasion of Ukraine justified an express candidacy from Sweden, which had remained outside the military alliances for two centuries.
– “Failure” –
Six years after her party’s tightening of the screws on immigration, she has further hardened her tone on integration, acknowledging a “failure” in many neighborhoods and displaying an anti-ghetto line by refusing the emergence of “Somalitown “.
In the latest polls, the Social Democrat “S” are credited with between 26.4% and 29.5%, around their historic low of 28.3% in 2018. They are ahead of the SD (19.8% to 21.0%) and the Moderates (16.2% to 18.0%).
A second defeat in four years would doom Moderates leader Ulf Kristersson. A victory would open him the post of Prime Minister, but with an extreme right in a position of strength.
“If the SD were in front, I don’t think they could enter government because the other (right-wing) parties don’t want to,” predicts Jan Teorell. “But they will sell for more.”
