The bullish streak of the Ibex is in danger, in a session marked again by the inflation figures and by a rebound in the interests of the debt. Siemens Gamesa shakes up the day on the Ibex.
Investors park the outbreaks of optimism that emerged in the previous days. The signs of a greater reopening in Chinese cities confined by new Covid cases reinforce the less unfavorable macro scenarios, those that do not yet contemplate a recession in the economy. In return, the reactivation of large Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai clears the way for increases in two of the factors that have exerted the most pressure on the markets, oil prices and debt interest.
The messages released yesterday by the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, have strengthened the upturn in debt yields, by maintaining his belligerent speech against inflation. The market is pricing in at least two more meetings with interest rate hikes of 50 basis points, double the usual rate. The massive purchases of debt last week give way to a withdrawal that brings the interest on the US ten-year bond closer to 3%, a level that reactivates the debate about where the ceiling on debt interest could be. At the moment, in Europe, the return on the German bund is once again above 1%, and that of the ten-year Spanish bond is 2.10%.
Added to the higher financing costs are new increases in energy prices. The price of oil underpins its latest rises. The barrel of Brent stands at 112 dollars, driven by the possible reactivation of demand in China, and pending European negotiations to apply the embargo on Russian crude. The West Texas-type barrel, a reference in the US, even exceeds Brent, reaching 113 dollars.
The firmness of energy prices threatens to delay the expected fall in inflation figures. In today’s session a new maximum has been known in the CPI figures for the United Kingdom. In the month of April, prices shot up 9%, well above the 7% in March, although one tenth less than the 9.1% expected by analysts. Today’s session also brought a slight surprise, putting the CPI for the eurozone in April at 7.4%, one tenth below the 7.5% initially estimated.
Europe cools its rises, and the Spanish stock market moderates the resurgence of confidence that allowed yesterday to chain three consecutive days of advances. The comeback gives way to greater caution, and the Ibex tries to stay close to 8,500 points to consolidate what it has gained in the three previous sessions.
In the absence of results, the Ibex finds bullish stimuli in the bid rumors. Siemens Gamesa has been suspended on the stock market as speculations about a possible takeover bid for Siemens Energy are fueled. The manufacturer of wind turbines, at the time of the suspension decreed by the CNMV, rose 11%, a pull that allows part of the falls accumulated so far this year to be erased. The avalanche of purchases that Gamesa’s listing receives today extends to other companies linked to renewables such as Solaria, and to all energy companies, especially Naturgy.
The Ibex, in return, receives the brake on cyclical values, the main drivers of yesterday’s rises. CaixaBank is making an effort to consolidate yesterday’s bullish pull, in the heat of its new strategic plan, and the moderation also reaches the steel companies, ArcelorMittal and Acerinox.
The rest of the European stock markets adopt a more restrained bias than in previous days, with investors attentive to the evolution of the debt and oil markets. The German Dax today is limited to consolidating the 14,000 points recovered in recent days.
The results and the consequences of the speculations of corporate movements mark the business agenda of the day in Europe. Rumors of a takeover bid on Siemens Gamesa spread increases to rivals Vestas and Nordex. In turn, the market digests the information about the failed merger attempt between UniCredit and Commerzbank. Without leaving the banking sector, ABN Amro’s shares are deflated after publishing results and warning of the impact of the Russian and Ukrainian markets on its business.
Europe’s most export-oriented companies are keeping an eye on the recent rally in the euro. The community currency consolidates its latest gains today, and strengthens above the $1.05 level. The British pound, after a somewhat lower-than-expected CPI data, fell back towards the threshold of 1.24 dollars.
The day stabilizes the price of gold above the barrier of 1,800 dollars per ounce. Bitcoin, on the other hand, fails to consolidate above the reference level of recent weeks, $30,000. In today’s session they lose this level again at their intraday lows, although the movements are again reduced.
5
