– We expect that they confirm that they are going to raise interest rates in march and that the prospects for the Norwegian economy is quite unchanged. The market has not fully priced into a marsheving, and there are little expectations of further rentehevinger, writes Nordea Markets in an analysis.
Storbanken get the result of DNB Markets :
At the previous meeting, in December, stated the bank that it was most likely that interest rates will be put up in march. There is little reason to expect changes in interest rates at the meeting this week, or that it is being given new signals about the way forward.
Thursday’s board is a mellommøte, where the central bank neither comes with a new monetary policy report or hold a press conference to explain his decision.
Two jumps in 2019
According to the DNB, since the previous meeting come get the new information about the state of the economy that are likely to change forecasts from December.
the key policy rate has been kept unchanged since it was set up from a record low of 0,5 to 0,75 per cent in september last year. The reason that interest rates now on the rise, is that it is the upturn in the Norwegian economy.
Recovery – with fewer available resources in the economy, capacity utilisation close to normal level and inflation close to the target – looks set to continue, was the conclusion in Norges Bank’s report in December.
– If the key rate is kept long at the current level, prices and wages rapidly and the financial imbalances build up. Then increases the risk of a powerful backlash ahead in time, wrote the central bank.
Gradually increase
at the same time, Norges Bank to put up interest rates too quickly, because it can slow down the recovery so that unemployment increases, and inflation becomes too low.
the central Bank sees a “gradual renteoppgang in the years ahead”.
– So we are now considering the prospects and risks, the key policy rate will most likely be set up in march 2019, said the governor Øystein Olsen before christmas.
Also the development in the world as a whole will have an impact on the Norwegian rentesettingen, and Thursday is the board of The european central bank (ECB). While interest rates in the united STATES is on the rise, is the ECB interest rate is still 0 percent.
– There have been more cautious signaliser from the central bank in the past, and we will follow when they suggest that the first renteheving can get. We and the market believe it comes first all the way to the end of the year, writes Nordea about the ECB meeting.
the Next trough in The us the central bank is scheduled to 29. 30. January.