The Andalusian campaign’s final stretch has seen a mixture of refusal by leftist formations not to abstain from avoiding a possible government between Vox and PP, and undisguised pressure on that Executive to bear fruits by Macarena Olana. Juanma Moreno is the favorite PP candidate in the middle. Moreno will not follow the example of his partner Alfonso Fernandez Manueco who gave up the vice presidency, three councils and the role of Santiago Abascal in the Castilian–Leonese election. Isabel Diaz Ayuso is her marker, whose Madrid 2021 result allows her to be the sole government. Moreno is aware that he must mobilize the indecisive and useful vote to at least reach the summit of 50 seats. The absolute majority in the Andalusian Parlament is 55. This would allow him to negotiate freely.
Like in the Andalusian election of 2018, where Susana Diaz won, despite Moreno being governed by virtue a pact made with Ciudadanos, nothing is written and everything rests on a few tenths. Genoa is convinced that Cs will be their support unless they avoid the terrible omens of the elections, even though they can only dream of the disaster of Juan Espadas, the socialist candidate. They have internal surveys that show figures that lower the PSOE result to between 31 and 28 parlamentars. The popular assume that if the socialists are below thirty, they will overcome the sweet barrier at 50 seats.
A sample of the effort to fish in the socialist fishing grounds until the last minute, the popular candidacy contacted 125.361 Andalusians using a door to door’ telephone. Moreno made 120 calls during the campaign, using car trips to make them.
At an event in Huelva on Friday, the popular candidate raised doubts about his result. He said that it would not be sufficient to “develop more agile and efficient government action”, which is to say, not to depend upon Vox. To avoid abstention from the hypothetical investiture under Ferraz’s “direct order”, he appealed for the “useful vote” before the decision by Swords.
Vox will not facilitate a government if it is dependent on their votes. In the last electoral debate, Macarena Olona warned Moreno that “without advisors, there’s no support.” Although the far-right group entered the campaign with improved 2018 data, it has been slipping in the polls in recent days (the last CIS barometer in Andalusia gave them a range of 13.6 to 15.8 %). This has resulted in a shift in strategy. Abascal’s strategists have gone into hiding to market councils to a Government they assume will be popular.
The possibility of a slowdown could make the extreme right very far away from the result in November 2019’s general elections. They had a slight advantage of over 7,000 votes in them over Vox In Andalusia with nearly 870,000 Andalusians placing bets on the ballot headed by Santiago. Abascal. They received 12 of 52 seats in Congress thanks to this support.
If the polls are correct, it would also indicate that the wager to place Olona, one of the first Vox swordsmen, at the national level -Olona -in the Andalusian candidacy was not fulfilled. It is comparable to the 12 seats Abascal currently holds in the Andalusian parliament. Olona’s leadership will not subtract but it will also add to the brand in a unique manner, just like Rocio Monasterio from Madrid.
Both Vox and PP have used strategies in the Andalusian theater. These strategies have been translated at the national level. This is the first test for the president of the popular party, Alberto Nunez Feijoo. Although the left called him ugly for allowing Abascal’s party to enter the Government of Castilla y Leon Government, the Galician leader hid the fact that he was just landed in office. He must however reveal his cards on Monday.
