The end of the golden parenthesis. After three years of uninterrupted decline in the number of job seekers, the figure started to rise again in the third quarter of 2023. Between July and September, the number of people registered with Pôle emploi without any activity, category A, increased by 0.6% in France (excluding Mayotte). That is 17,400 more people to reach 3,028,500. The situation is hardly more encouraging for the other populations studied. By adding French people in sudden part-time, categories B and C, the evolution is more measured but remains positive with 8,800 new registrants. Finally, all categories combined (A,B,C,D and E) the overall increase is 0.3% with 21,300 more people. In detail, we observe that this deterioration is clearly more the result of a sharp drop in outflows, which fell by 4.4%, than that of an increase in inflows, the increase of which is limited to 0.7%.
This turnaround in the job market was expected and even announced by a growing number of economists. Indeed, France has been facing a slowdown in economic activity for several quarters. Under these conditions, maintaining a high level of job creation was almost mission impossible. More worrying, part of the 1.3 million jobs created since the end of the Covid pandemic could be destroyed. The Banque de France, like the OFCE, is indeed counting on a rise in unemployment in the short term. After reaching a threshold of 7.1% at the start of the year according to the ILO, it could rise to 7.9% by the end of the year.
However, this should not make us forget the overall positive state of the job market currently. At the end of 2015, unemployment was still above 10%. In addition, recruitment pressures and the number of vacant jobs remain high, a sign that job opportunities exist. Finally, the current deterioration could only be temporary and a reacceleration of activity, bringing jobs, could occur as early as 2024.
On the other hand, the objective announced by the government of reaching full employment in 2027 appears increasingly compromised. To reach 5% unemployment, the executive is counting on an in-depth reform of Pôle emploi, which will take the name France Travail from January 1, 2024. The aim is in particular to better coordinate the many actors working on the return for employment as well as getting closer to companies to facilitate the recruitment phase.
