The most relevant indicator among the recently published has been the affiliation to the Social Security, which in November fell by 47,500 people, the worst figure in a month of November since the start of the recovery. In terms desestacionalizados, this result is equivalent to an increase of 15,000 members over the prior month, well below the growth rates of monthly that have been observed in recent years. This poor result is in part influenced by the fall in employment in agriculture, although the behavior in the industry, and the construction also has not been positive. However, in the services market, once you have corrected the seasonality, the increase of the membership in November has been in line with the figures that have been recorded throughout the year.
however, this relatively poor data of November comes to a continuation of very good results in September and October, so that, even though December is also modest, the rate of growth quarter-on-quarter membership in the set of the fourth quarter will have been very probably superior to that of the third.
Other indicators that have already been released for the start of the fourth quarter have generally been positive. For example, the industrial production index for October recorded the biggest monthly advance in nine months. In keeping with his recovery, the PMI of manufacturing, after bottoming out in September, it regained ground in October and November, while the average of both months is still slightly below the average of the third quarter. The climate index industrial yes, it has improved in its average October-November on the previous quarter.
remember that the activity in the industrial sector suffered a fall in the third quarter, which had a certain weight to the automotive sector: both production and exports experienced a major setback in the month Bets10 of September, due to the entry into force of the new protocol for the measurement of emissions. But, unlike what happened in Germany, which also suffered a disruption, the Spanish production was recovered in great measure in October.
In regard to the services, the entry of tourists has also experienced a significant advance in October, following zero growth in the first nine months of the year, which has been reflected in a recovery of the overnight stays and the increase of passenger air traffic. Another important indicator, the PMI of services, also recorded a solid advance in October-November over the average of the previous quarter.
In the construction, for its part, stresses the improvement of the confidence index, while the recent evolution of tender points to a possible acceleration of the public work, as already happened, probably, in the third quarter. In terms of housing, visas, work new do not show a significant change in their thriving career.
With regard to consumption, retail sales presented in October, the best result of the year. The consumer confidence index worsened, but his evolution throughout this year has not been very correlated with the consumption.
All of these indicators in their set seem to point to a certain acceleration in GDP growth in the final stretch of the year up to 0.7%. Still have yet to know many more indicators, corresponding to November and December, but with few data so favorable at the beginning of the quarter, really bad would have to be the evolution in the last two months for that, at least, is not equal to 0.6% of the previous quarters.
In case of confirmed said to 0.7%, should not be interpreted as the end of the trend of slowdown and a new reacceleration of the economy. Rather, it would be a altibajo prompt within a trend of mild deceleration, which are still targeting all of the fundamentals, both internal and external.
Maria Jesus Fernandez is a senior economist of Funcas.
