what is the effect price has on the Electricity, if in the days of Wind – and solar power plants build to be installed? The consulting firm Energy Brainpool has calculated in a study on behalf of Greenpeace Energy, the impact in the wholesale price would be up to 5.20 euros per megawatt-hour lower.
at the same time, this also means, if the expansion targets of the Federal government for renewable energy will also be missed only moderate rise in electricity prices in the wholesale noticeable. Otherwise, the construction of Wind and solar power plants, the stock prices decrease significantly. The study by Energy Brainpool, which is to be released today, was the Background to pre-exclusive.
the starting point of the investigation, the use of former brown coal build-days. The analysis looks with in-between steps to the year 2038, and assumes that there is a total of 10.0 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity and 8.6 gigawatts of wind power to be installed. This would correspond to just under the net capacity of around 20 gigawatts of brown coal, albeit with significantly less electricity production. This increase in installed capacity of renewable energies is based on all of the brown-coal-regions-expected – to the concept of “clean area turning point” of Greenpeace Energy. At the same time, it is assumed that with these systems the from the black-red coalition planned expansion goal of 65 percent Renewable share in electricity consumption is reached in the year 2030. The electricity price effect of the plants is high. In a baseline scenario, with stagnant Gas, only slightly rising CO2 and falling coal prices, the electricity price in 2030 would be 1.40 euros per megawatt-hour lower than without the EE capacity, 2038 staircase the difference to 4.5 Euro.
Largely linear phase-out of coal
In the scenario “Energy Brainpool”, the CO2 prices are significantly higher, coal and natural gas will be significantly cheaper, because of the ambitious climate protection are being implemented. Then the effect would be even greater: by 2030, the additional Wind and solar capacity current to 1.80 Euro per MWh of cheaper, 2038 even to 5.20 euros. The current price is currently trading on the futures market, with almost 50 Euro per MWh. A statement about the price level in the future, the investigation is not going to.
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Energy Brainpool, in the investigation of a largely linear phase-out of coal until 2038 and is based on the current proposals of the coal Commission. For the market development of widely accepted scenarios will be based on, for example, the expectations of the International energy Agency (IEA).
it is irrelevant Whether the capacities in the brown coalfields of coal or elsewhere in Germany to be built, for the price of Electricity. Electricity can be freely traded, as if there were a Germany-wide copper plate instead of a network with bottlenecks. The investigation should show according to the principals, that the use of the mines for renewable energy, high effect can unfold, said Sönke Tangermann, CEO of Greenpeace Energy: “These Figures underline how useful it is to build on former mining areas, additional Wind and photovoltaic plants.” The Federal government should allow in the upcoming climate bill to the Development of Wind and solar power on released mining areas – the recommendations of the coal Commission would have to be supplemented accordingly.
the three major business associations BDI, BDA and DIHK had recently presented a study on the development of Electricity prices, in the they advanced, however, the price-increasing effect of the coal Commission’s proposed phase-out until 2038 in the foreground. In an analysis of associations, it is, however, in addition: The Expansion of renewable energy to 65 percent share of the power consumption “attenuates the increase in wholesale electricity prices”. The higher additional funding would however, costs due to the EEG. This effect, however, affects the industry differently. Many large industrial consumers of electricity are exempt from the EEG levy to a large extent. Small consumers, however, must pay the full levy.
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Jakob Schlandt
The post first appeared in our decision-Briefing daily mirror Background on energy & climate.
