The economist Dani Rodrik has published an article where he elaborates historical series and comes to the conclusion that after a period of globalisation and technological revolution is followed by a period of protectionism. This would mean that Trump, Le Pen, Brexit, would be a normal historical. All have local causes but they share a virus global.
In Spain, the phenomenon began with we Can in 2014 and now the extreme right has returned to a Parliament. We are associated to the economic crisis. Vox begins to rise in the polls since the motion of censure may that allowed Pedro Sanchez arriving at The Moncloa with the support of the pro-independence catalans. But without global analysis it is not possible to explain the phenomenon. The advantage of arriving late is that we know the dynamics of similar phenomena in other european countries.
The electoral program of Vox is simple and direct to the emotions, and we know that in other countries has been very effective. Collective potentials are men workers, outside of the large urban centres and young people. Both groups are the losers of the globalization and the crisis. The uberización and automation invented by the Silicon Valley causes fear to lose the job and is a breeding ground for protectionism. And the young people in Spain are those who have most suffered the crisis less jobs, wages, precarious, increases in prices of college tuition, etc.
The problem of simple solutions to complex problems is the reality that, with time, it is Betmatik relentless. The economic proposals of Vox focus on fiscal issues without an economic plan to meet the future challenges. Promise to improve pensions and allowances to most vulnerable groups and an intense lowering of the income tax, which would accept the majority of spaniards.
The question is who pays for it? Vox proposes to cut, mainly by eliminating the autonomous communities. To eliminate the autonomy needed to reform the Constitution, something unlikely to get Vox. And if you get would prove that the greater part of public expenditure are salaries of civil servants mainly in health and education, and the spending would be maintained.
Spain has 1.2 trillion of public debt and 20,000 million euros of deficit. Tax rebates and cuts in expenditure are not realistic would increase the deficit and the public debt at about 50,000 million, which would more than triple the current deficit. Would increase the risk premium. Would ask for another bailout with our european partners. And increase plus the payment of interest, taxes increases and cuts in health and education as did Rajoy in 2012. The same story of Alexis Tsipras in Greece in 2015 and Mateo Salvini in Italy now.
they have to explain the leaders of Vox is how to pay the pensions and the salaries of the officials in this scenario? The anger is understandable, but everything is likely to get worse. The paradox is that the crisis was generated in the real-estate bubble José María Aznar and the ideologues of Vox started his political career with him in FAES and in The Moncloa.
