From the point of view of investors, the past year was one to Forget: Except for exotic things like the metal Palladium investors have been able to 2018, with Investments barely earn something. The Swiss benchmark index SMI lost under the dash, around 10 percent of their value, the important US S&P 500 Index ended the year with a Minus of around 6 percent.
2019 threatens to be a depressing year, as The growth weakens worldwide, beginning in the lead market of the USA. In addition, a long list of political risks: “The development of relations between the United States and China and their global impact, and the self-inflicted Brexit-Chaos in the UK are large uncertainty factors for 2019”, writes, for example, Stéphane Monier, Chief Investment Officer of the private Bank Lombard Odier, in his Outlook for the year.
Bank expert advises investors to Wait and see
Therefore, Panagiotis Spiliopoulos, head of Research at Vontobel has to wait for a Bank-experts unusual advice: “those Who are not currently forced to create money, you should.” Currently, the stock markets would react with nervousness on any bad news. “If the stock markets no longer react to negative announcements, then new investments can be considered,” he says.
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Thus, the experts of the UBS in its baseline scenario, expect for the next six months, the stock markets in the United States and the Euro area in the best-case increase slightly. The trade conflict with China escalates, but more losses were expected.
The political uncertainty does not lead, however, to investment advise experts, in principle, of shares. In view of the continuing low interest rates, the vast opinion to prefer equities over bonds. The exact Mix depends on the risk hunger.
stock market forecast 2019 the ZKB image to enlarge
the Council Also does not apply to equity investments only for the scenario that the US economy is slipping into recession. Which at the Moment, but no one goes out. “We expect the 2019 again to be a difficult year and to approve the stock markets, only modest gains”, is it therefore to be careful in the view of Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB).
Should the absence of disasters, and to appreciate the experts of the ZKB that investors can earn with US equities in the current year, including dividends, of around 7 percent. The Credit Suisse analysts are slightly more cautious, hold for U.S. stocks a total return of 5.5% is feasible.
anyone Who wants to invest in stocks, comes over to the USA, the title of the United States, about half of the global market capitalization unite. From a Swiss perspective, the question of the exchange rate from Swiss francs to the Dollar, with a view on US equities, most of the experts expect, however, no big changes.
survey
Where do you want to invest in 2019?
US stocks
Swiss stocks
Other stock markets
raw materials
bonds or real estate
Vote
US stocks
12.5%
Swiss shares
56.3%
Other stock markets
12.5%
raw materials
0%
bonds or real estate
18.8%
16 votes
US stocks
12.5%
Swiss shares
56.3%
Other stock markets
12.5%
raw materials
0%
bonds or real estate
18.8%
16 votes
According to many banking experts, should the stock exchanges of the emerging countries in this year’s higher yields than US stocks drop. The analysts of Credit Suisse expect emerging market securities have a yield of 8 percent. To speak less well, analysts are opposed to the European title in view of limited growth prospects and political risks.
Swiss values are some of the banks . “Our favorites are US equities, and Swiss equities,” writes ZKB-Investment-in-chief Christoph Schenk, in his view, “both markets are characterized by relatively high earnings growth and a relatively defensive sector structure.”
Vontobel expert Spiliopoulos keeps it for better Investments by industry to select and not to countries. The above-mentioned reassurance should be entered, it keeps assets in the sectors technology, consumer goods and banks is worth consideration. Whatever the chosen investment strategy: Strong nerves should be a part of it.
(editing Tamedia)
Created: 04.01.2019, 06:13 PM
