A few days remain until 6. February. On the day the EU will decide on the merger of the rail transport division of Siemens with the French competitor Alstom. A highly political matter, which had been threaded a half years ago, with the support of Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel. And now, the competition Commissioner, Margrethe Vestager is slowed down. But, perhaps, politics, business and the Commissioner to come still closer in the next ten days.
Why does the merger make sense?
in 2015, the Beijing-desired merger of the two largest Chinese train manufacturers set to be the new world leader CRRC the industry and forced conversations that led, for example, Siemens and the canadian Bombardier group, on a merger of Rail vehicle construction. Then Emmanuel Macron was chosen, and in the sense of the French-German friendship, the high policy of moving the Siemens boss Joe Kaeser for a change of course: the way of the Canadians, to the French. “We put the European idea into practice and create together with our friends at Alstom, in the long run, a new European Champion of the railway industry,” said Kaeser in September 2017. The merged entity would have a turnover of 15 billion euros and could then offer to the Chinese to stand up to, the bring it to around 30 billion euros. Still CRRC is limited largely to the Asian market, but is expected to remain so, especially since the company is technologically on the level of the three major Western corporations.
How the new group should look like?
In the new French-German company Siemens holds a majority of just over 50 percent. The location decision was for the French, the headquarters is supposed to be “in the Metropolitan area of Paris”. The electrical engineering group Alstom, in which the state holds 20 per cent., builds the high speed train TGV, and Siemens the ICE for the Deutsche Bahn. The new group, the come, then, and has more than 60 billion euros in the order books, and promises the merger will allow savings of 470 million euros in the year. In Germany, 52 000 individuals, most of Siemens and Bombardier are working in the rail industry, but also Stadler has become an Industry leader and Alstom produced in Salzgitter.
The Zuggeschäft Bombardier is controlled from Berlin, in Pankow Stadler builds, trains, and Siemens is very well represented with the signal technology in the capital. “The question is whether we will be overtaken by competitors, or in Europe a counter-weight”, argues the Association of the German industry seemed to be for the merger of Siemens and Alstom.
What speaks against the merger?
competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager. “We are talking here about two great companies that are able to survive in the competition,” said Vestager just the “time”. You mean: Every company for itself on the world market and must have no fear of CRRC. The Commission had considered the role of the Chinese accurately and as a non-threat rating for each of the two fusion partners. “Alstom and Siemens are already world champion in your business, not only the champion of Europe”, said Vestager. Against the merger, the Federal cartel office and the German railway have registered as a customer of the business concerns. In politics and industry, the surprise had triggered, because the state group track falls to its owner, the Federal government in the back.
there Is still a Chance?
Amazingly clear, the French Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire and Federal Economics Minister, Peter Altmaier, have in these days. A rejection was “economically and politically a failure” (Le Maire), Europe’s need for “European Champions, and, in addition, a company must have a certain size” (Altmaier). “It would be better if the merger were to be allowed”, also appealed to EU Commissioner for economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici against Vestager. In Siemens are estimated to circle the consequences of this political intervention: The probability of a denial decreased from 80 to 60 percent, and both groups would be a last attempt to find a compromise with Vestager. “At any price”, not going to merge. It make no sense, the range of signal technology to a competitor, because here in connection with the digitization of large potential sun.
What are the Alternatives?
If the EU is the conclusion of prohibits along, then you would also need a Fusion of Siemens and Bombardier. The market remains in any case under pressure to consolidate as the industry experts agree. The fusion carousel would be in travel, Alstom and Siemens would be on the lookout perhaps for Stadler and the Spanish CAF. Siemens chief Kaeser speaks for the rail vehicle systems division of several options – an IPO is likely. The Horror would be for European politicians, if one of the European companies allied with the CRRC and the Chinese could then also record in Europe.
