(Obi.no:) With last week’s downturn is the shares now down at the levels from the bottom in October, and in addition, Oslo Børs fell over 10 percent from the top.
I stand still on the decline on the stock exchange in the autumn is a typical correction, ” comments chief economist and partner Bjørn Roger Wilhelmsen in Nordkinn Asset Management to the Obi.no.
There was increased interest on u.s. government securities which first triggered the correction in the beginning of October, but in addition, expectations of weaker economic growth going forward, and oljeprisfallet, according to Wilhelmsen contributed to amplifying the downturn in the stock market in the last few weeks.
An opportunity for purchase
11. October explained sjeføkonomen to the Obi.no, a typical correction is of 10-15 percent, sometimes 20 percent.
– It’s a long time since the last correction, and we should therefore not be surprised if we see the Oslo stock Exchange falling a further 10 per cent, said Wilhelmsen.
at The time, had the stock market decline, according to the sjeføkonomen now been too small and too short-lived to that it was an obvious kjøpsmulighet.
Read also: – the Oslo stock Exchange may fall a further 10 per cent
we Look at the prospects for the future, so I think also on the somewhat weaker global economic growth in 2019 compared with 2018, primarily because of a weaker contribution from the united STATES. But, I think the growth in 2019 is good enough to still provide some support to the stock market, ” he says.
It is according to sjeføkonomen no doubt that we are now in a late phase of this global oppgangskonjunkturen, but he still believe we have a couple-three years back.
Therefore, I think on a recoil in the stock market in the next few months, ” says Wilhelmsen, who do not see it as exciting, in a two to three year perspective, which is due to several factors:
There is a real risk that the u.s. economy goes into a recession in the course of two-three årDen Italian statgjeldskrisen may come to be a progressively bigger problem the next couple of years.
Uncertainties
The biggest uncertainties is according to the sjeføkonomen first, the downward trend of global growth, and particularly the euro area, and the Italian sovereign debt crisis, followed by the Trump strategy for trade war next year.
– What can pull up in the positive favor?
First and foremost, that the Italian government agrees to reduce the deficit of the state budget for 2019, which can provide optimism in the short term, and that the Uk avoids the “hard Brexit”.
– Furthermore, also the growth in the euro area, which has fallen in 2018, and turn up again next year to play positive, and in addition to the commitment to increased communication between the united STATES and China, which ends with handelskrigen skrinlegges, draws Wilhelmsen forward.
also Read: Predict the recoil on the Oslo stock Exchange
The key drivers
senior economist Halfdan Grangård in Handelsbanken Capital Markets also believe we are almost like normal should look outside the borders of the main drivers for the development on the Oslo stock Exchange.
This week is the meeting between the american and the chinese president in connection with the G-20 meeting towards the end of the week. Signals from these meetings about a possible improvement in the samarbeidsklimaet between China and the united STATES would be able to help to increase the risikosentimentet, says Grangård to the Obi.no.
Developments in oil prices are also particularly important for the Oslo stock Exchange.
ahead of OPEC meeting 6. December there will be initial discussions between the parties. Signals from here that indicates agreement about the significant produksjonskutt, will be able to send oil prices up, and be a positive driver for the Oslo stock Exchange, says seniorøkonomen.
In the long term, according to the Grangård the global vekstbildet an important driver.
Here have narrativet in the market has become increasingly negative in recent weeks, with key performance indicators that are constantly linking to something. Along with the prospects for improvement of handelsklimaet, a stabilization or inversion of the negative trend in the global macro data could contribute to greater risk appetite and thereby support the stock exchanges.
Here can according to Handelsbanken-economist, signs of renewed stimulus in China gets attention in the aktivitetsdata there be an important signal for the global konjunkturen.
– Among the risk factors on the downside, one can mention a opposite development in the macro data than indicated above, aggravated handelsklima between China and the united STATES, accelerating inflation, in particular, the united STATES, which in turn contribute to higher interest rates, end Grangård.
Read also: – These are all risk factors – also for the Oslo stock Exchange
