It is one of the traditional stages of the budgetary marathon, which starts and promises to be particularly difficult this year. This Thursday, the Court of Auditors publishes a report on the situation and outlook for public finances. In terms of the situation, the extent of the disaster is known. Paris is emerging from the succession of years of all-out spending, in the context of the pandemic and then the return of inflation, with a debt and a deficit on GDP expected respectively, at the end of 2023, at 110% and 4.9% .
By definition, the “perspectives” component appears more open. In its 2023-2027 stability program, sent to Brussels, Bercy advances on a deficit target of 2.7% on the horizon of the forecast and is thus pleased to enter the European nails. Satisfaction undermined by the Court of Auditors which notes that among the main European countries “France would be the only one not to have a deficit below 3% in 2026, even though certain countries such as Italy or Spain are leaving higher deficit levels in 2022 (respectively 8 points of GDP and 4.8 against 4.7 for France)”.
The French objectives, which are based on an increase in the volume of public expenditure contained at 0.4% on average, therefore appear less ambitious than those of neighboring countries. However, the Court of Auditors is concerned about the ability of Paris to achieve them while growth forecasts seem optimistic. The objective of controlling public spending will have to be achieved “in conditions that are all the more difficult as new expenditure is committed and funding for ecological investments will have to be guaranteed”. The completion of the 2024 budget, which should, according to the executive, require at least 10 billion in savings, will give an idea of the executive’s voluntarism on this subject.
